Cheat and Retreat

While the media is reporting that the US is preparing for possible military strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities, Iran's ministers are playing the cheat and retreat game. After first saying that they were considering withdrawing from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, they're now saying that they might reconsider that position. But Mahmoud Ahmadinejad continues to threaten Israel - warning that "Israel will be removed." That's a not so subtle way of saying that when Iran goes nuclear, that they have their sights set on whacking Israel - though I've noted that Iran could just as easily go after anyone within their missile range to dominate the Islamic world and assert the supremacy of the Shi'a theology. And Ahmadinejad's statements clearly show where Iran's intentions lie.

There have been sporadic reports over the past year about potential military strikes against the Iranians. As California Yankee notes:

During 2005 there were numerous reports indicating the U.S. is making preparations for such an attack. There were reports of U.S. forces on the ground in Iran, U.S. combat aircraft and reconnaissance drones violating Iranian airspace. More recently there was speculation in the German media that the U.S. is preparing to attack suspected Iranian nuclear sites as soon as early 2006.

The never-ending disclosures about Iran's nuclear intentions which have finally resulted in Iran being referred to the U.N. Security Council coupled with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's Hitler-like threats against Israel cause me to be less and less hopeful that diplomacy will be able to avoid a military confrontation with Iran.

Iran's current leadership seems determined to confront the West. The current Cartoon war is just the latest example of Iran's strategy.

The cartoon jihad is only one facet of the larger war against the West. Iran coopted the message to suit its purposes - both on the diplomatic front and to curry favor among the Islamists. Oh, and Iran claims that it doesn't have anything to do with the current rioting. I don't buy that for a moment. Iran is a totalitarian regime, and these kinds of demonstrations and riots are precipitated by government agitators. Of course, Iran tries to blame the US and Europe for the rioting and violence. Given that much of the most egregious rioting occurred in areas dominated by Syria and Iran, both totalitarian governments, the actions by the US have nothing to do with the violence. It's a pathetic attempt to divert blame from who actually was responsible.

And the New York Times notes that since North Korea tossed the Agreed Framework into the circular file, they may have built at least a half dozen nuclear weapons, though it's only a guestimate. No one has any idea what North Korea has - simply because there's no one to check and see what they've done.

That's the position the world is in vis-a-vis Iran.

American officials and the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed ElBaradei, have said that the treaty provision allowing countries to renounce it, with just 90 days' notice, constitutes a major flaw in the effort to keep nations from becoming nuclear powers.

That provision essentially allows nations to build up a civilian nuclear infrastructure under the protection of the treaty, and then convert it to military use as soon as the country abandons the treaty.

"It's the obvious hole in the treaty, and the Iranians may choose to exploit it," one senior American official said this week, before Mr. Ahmadinejad's speech. "From their perspective, the North Koreans didn't pay much of a price."

The Central Intelligence Agency has estimated that the North Koreans have produced fuel enough for six or more weapons since they left the treaty three years ago. But those are rough estimates, based more on the country's ability than knowledge of what they have produced, and it is unclear whether that fuel has been converted to weapons. Iran is further away from that ability.

All the CIA can say is that they're further away, but that isn't comforting knowing that they've restarted the gas centrifuges which are crucial to processing uranium into weapons' grade materials.

Now there are some reports who claim that Iran really isn't developing nuclear weapons and that the kind of reactor involved can't produce the kinds of nuclear materials necessary to make nuclear weapons. Of course, that report is from 2003, well before the current crisis - and doesn't take into account the other nuclear facilities - the time, place, and manner of Iran's nuclear program that includes hardened and underground facilities designed to thwart Osirak styled airborne attacks.

Others blogging the Iranian nuclear crisis: AJ Strata who notes that the military regularly updates military plans (and I noted the same yesterday).