Wednesday, January 11, 2006

Bluster or Prelude to Bunker Busting?

Israel claims that it can destroy Iran's nuclear weapons capabilities, which some reports indicate may come online as early as 2007. Is this bluster designed to push Iran to abandon its program early, or is it an accurate assessment of Israel's capabilities. We're in the murky world of propaganda and misdirection with the purpose to advance Israel's national security goals. Israel likely purposefully releases these messages to keep the Iranians on their toes and given that Israel has previously eliminated Iraq's nuclear capabilities in 1981, nothing should be put past Israel. However, Israel's comments also run the risk of backfiring and spurring Iran to speed their development to achieve their goals before Israel can launch an attack:
IDF Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Dan Halutz said last week that Iran’s nuclear program “can be destroyed.”

Halutz made the comments during a conference at Tel Aviv University, Army Radio reported.

Israeli officials and politicians have openly discussed the possibility of an attack on Iran, either alone or with other countries, aimed at crippling Iran’s nuclear development capabilities.

Meanwhile, Israel’s Foreign Ministry responded to Iran’s decision last week to resume nuclear fuel production research by issuing a statement saying “it is clear that this step calls for a grave and immediate international response – sending the issue to the [United Nations] Security Council.”

The statement said such a move would “send a clear message that the international community will not reconcile with Iran’s breaching its commitments.”


UPDATE:
Even as Iran continues to make one threat after another, Ace has some more information, including the possibility that 2 airfields in Northern Iraq may be tasked for an Iran mission. Idle speculation on the writer's part - as there's no reason to tip the hand on planning or projections, though the Iranians have to know that the West has at least a few countries worrying about Iran's nuclear program and make actually take matters into their own hands instead of waiting for the 17th harshly worded resolution to come down the pike.

Meanwhile, China is trying to act like a superpower and balance the US's hardline stance by saying that it will try to rein in Iran's nuclear ambitions. Yes. Just like Russia tried to do and failed.

Pamela at Atlas Shrugs has been all over the Iranian nutbars' nuclear ambitions. Not that all the words really matter to Ahmadinejad, who may be trying to provoke a confrontation just to get all the Iranians behind him who would otherwise be kicking him to the curb because the Iranian economy has been godawful for more than a decade with no sign of improvement.

Irish Pennants has some interesting thoughts on how the US is proceeding and getting some assistance from unlikely sources on Iran - because of fallout and fear of UNSCAM. It's certainly plausible, but I'd still like to have a thorough review of those millions of documents to see what exactly was going on, even if it means that everyones' dirty laundry gets aired.

UPDATE:
Ace of Spades has yet more on Ahmadinejad's rantings - this time he's saying that a 'great event' is coming. First great moment was the 1979 revolution. Next one is coming soon.

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