New Jersey Redistricting Leads To Primary Battle Between Rothman and Pascrell

The just approved redistricting of Congressional districts in New Jersey would have pitted Democrat Steve Rothman against Republican Scott Garrett. However, it appears that Rothman will instead seek to run against fellow Democrat Bill Pascrell.

U.S. Rep. Steve Rothman (D-9th Dist.) is telling Democrats he plans to challenge Bill Pascrell (D-8th Dist.) in the June primary, according to two Democratic sources with knowledge of the congressman’s thinking.

Rothman was thrown into a Republican-leaning district with Rep. Scott Garrett (R-5th Dist.) in congressional redistricting process that concluded last week. Since then, there has been speculation that he would instead move and challenge Pascrell in the newly-drawn 9th District, which will contain many of the towns Rothman currently represents.

The Democrats spoke on condition of anonymity so as not to pre-empt Rothman's official announcement, which they expect to come this week. Rothman today began informing Democrats of his decision.

Passaic County Democratic Chairman John Currie, who supports Pascrell, reacted with a preemptive press release, saying Rothman “would be letting down New Jersey Democrats” by running.

Democrats, especially Rothman, would appear to be conceding the 5th District to Garrett, rather than mount a challenge to Garrett.
Instead, we're getting a primary race between two Democrats in a district that would likely be Democrat regardless.

New Jersey Redistricting May Pit Garrett Versus Rothman

Oh, this is going to get interesting. Here in NJ, we're losing one Congressional representative, and the redistricting panel had to figure out who was going to lose a seat.

Well, my representative is on the chopping block. Democrats on the redistricting panel are pitting Steve Rothman, a Democrat, versus Scott Garrett, a Republican.

On the face of it, this appears to be a fair compromise considering that this part of the state lost more population than the southern part of the state, and the other options involved another Democrat, Bill Pascrell. Instead of pitting the two Democrats against each other, or Pascrell versus Garrett, they went with Garrett versus Rothman. That would be a highly competitive race, and would pit two ideologically disparate candidates against each other. Garrett is among the most conservative members of the GOP, while Rothman is among the more liberal members of the Democratic party.

The GOP members of the commission have to still provide their options but the tiebreaker, a Rutgers Law School Dean John Farmer Jr. seems to think that this is going to be the final outcome.

It would make one heck of a race next year and would probably set records for campaign spending as both Republicans and Democrats try to take the seat and make a point in the overall Congressional races.

GOP Resurgence Coincides With Redistricting

The GOP could not have picked a better time for them to regain control of the House and thrive at the state level in many parts of the country.

2010 saw the decennial census. Redistricting follows.

The party will control 25 Legislatures, including Ohio, North Carolina, and Minnesota, boosting their power in statehouses by the most since 1928, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Republicans won the House and Senate in Alabama for the first time since the end of the Civil War. They took governors’ seats from Democrats in Michigan, Pennsylvania and at least nine other states.

Fifteen to 25 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are more likely to remain Republican or switch from Democratic after redistricting as a result of the party’s victory in the states, said Ed Gillespie, chairman of the Republican State Leadership Committee.

“We’re going to end up protecting a lot as opposed to carving new ones,” Gillespie said in a conference call with reporters.

Congressional seats will be reapportioned following the 2010 U.S. census. States with shrinking populations will lose seats, and those with growing ones will gain them. The party that draws the election map in each state will shape the political landscape for the next 10 years.

Redistricting Process

In 38 states, governors and state legislators play a determining role in the redistricting process, according to the Republican leadership committee.

Population figures come in December, which means that legislatures will begin the contentious task of creating new legislative districts for Congress and local districts. That's a monumental task, and it also means that in those states that have seen a loss of seats, politicians forced to the sidelines or otherwise forced into political campaigns against other incumbents as seats are merged.

That means that we'll see plenty of the usual gerrymandering of districts to protect incumbents where possible, but it also means that some states will see additional representation while others continue shedding representatives.

New York falls into that latter category, along with New Jersey.

This is an instance where elections have consequences for not just the immediate satisfaction, but long term changes to the political system.