Guest Post: Why Obama Will Never Be President

The following is another guest post by ChicagoDudeWhoTrades:

I don't think Obama will be elected president in 2008. In fact, I don't think he will ever be president. I will even go so far to say he will probably only be a 1-term Senator and then lose re-election.

Why do I think this? My reasons are long and varied. But it comes down to the simple fact that the more I learn about him, the less I like him. I have come to regret voting for him when he ran for the Senate. Why did I vote for him in the first place? He was running against Alan Keyes. Keyes is a good man, but the only thing he ever talked about during the campaign was abortion. Abortion is a important issue, but being a Senator involves more than abortion issues.

Let me start by talking about the man himself. His supporters say he is smart. Yes, when he gives a prepared speech he can speak quite well. However, when he makes off-the-cuff statements he doesn't do as well. I think when the debates happen, Sen. McCain will roll over him. This is probably why Sen. Obama has gone from wanting debates to seeming to dodge them. When Obama bombs in the debates, even this country's liberal media won't be able to successfully spin it for him (expect to hear plenty of "he had a headache/he was sick/ he was tired" type spin). When the American people see this, they will spot a empty suit begin to realize he isn't ready for the White House.

Here are a few more questions I have about Sen. Obama:

• He was President of the Harvard Law Review, but can he or anybody point to a single accomplishment of his while he was President of the HLR?
• Have his grades at Harvard ever been released? How about any important papers he wrote when he attended there?
• When he worked in a law firm, did he handle any important litigation or cases?
• What accomplishments can he point to as a Chicago community organizer?

HIS FRIENDS

Let us take a minute to look at Sen. Obama's friends. His friends are some unrepentant terrorists and a couple racist anti-American preachers, Rev.s Wright and Farrakhan.

Enough said.

HIS FAMILY

I take Michelle Obama at her word when she says she hasn't been proud of America until her husband ran for office. I think those represent her true feelings for the USA. It would be interesting to learn if Michelle recommended Trinity United to her husband, or if the church was recommended to the Obamas by others. If she recommended the church it would speak volumes about her and her beliefs.

Is Obama's family in Kenya Muslim? Raila Odinga (who says Barack is a cousin) the current Prime Minister of Kenya wants to bring Sharia to Kenya. I have some personal problems with Islam, I think Islam is incompatible with modernity. If Obama is a true 'progressive' as he claims, then why hasn't he ever called out his cousin on this? Obama's biological father abandoned him when he was young. But in Obama's book (Audacity of Hope) Obama pretty much hero-worships his dad. If my dad had walked out on me, I wouldn't be hero-worshiping the man. I think this is a legitimate question about the character of Sen. Obama.


HIS PARTY

Folks, I think the Democrats have some serious problems. I think the Dem convention will be a mess. First of all, the convention is short of money. Their kooky hard-left base will be protesting outside and making fools of themselves and the Dems. Seriously, when you have a group called 'recreate '68' coming to town, does anybody think anything good will happen?

Another thing to consider is the fact that technically, Obama is not the official Dem party candidate yet. That won't happen until the voting actually happens on the convention floor. Hillery Clinton only stopped her campaign, she didn't concede or turn her delegates over to Obama. It is a slight chance, but I think she will go Brutus on Obama and pull a fast one against him.

Even if he is the Dem nominee after Denver, I think there are enough upset Hillery supporters who will sit on their hands (or even vote for Sen McCain) on Election Day.

HIS POSITIONS

Does he have a single position today that was the same on January 1 2008? Okay, I'm being sarcastic, but not by much. He has flip-flopped on Iraq, FISA, federal campaign money, just to name a couple. Plus, I think his and the Dem's 'no drilling for oil, at anytime, anywhere' is going to kill them both in November.

AFRICAN-AMERICAN COMMUNITY

I think race-hustlers like Jesse Jackson/ Al Sharpton and Rev. Wright will secretly work against Sen. Obama. Why? Kinda hard for them to make a living race-hustling when a African-American is living at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Plus I think there is some resentment of Obama by both Jackson and Sharpton. Obama has had more political success in the last few years then they have had combined over their lifetimes. That has got to hurt deep down. I also don't think they like their positions of leadership in the African-American community being taken over by Obama.

HIS BASE

I think some of the shine is coming off Sen. Obama among even his base. I think they are beginning to realize he is just a politician and not somebody special like he claims to be. He was the Anti-war candidate, now that he is trying to back-track on that, and also FISA, in a effort to seem centrist. His base is getting upset with him. Also I don't expect the much talked about 'youth' vote that always gets hyped every four years to you know, actually VOTE for him. They will be busy on election day and will bother to go to the polling place and pull the lever. Think I'm joking? Remember 'Obama Girl'? She was the Internet video sensation that sang songs about Obama. but on Primary Day in NY/NJ did she vote for him? Nope, she was too busy clubbing that day.

To wrap it up, There are multiple reasons why I think Sen. Obama will not be the next president of the United States of America. Feel free to argue/comment/etc. with me about this. I can be reached at chicagodudewhotrades@gmail.com

Guest Post: When Will Israel Hit Iran's Nuclear Program

Here's another guest post from chicagodudewhotrades, who can be contacted at chicagodudewhotrades@gmail.com and comments can always be left here as well:

I believe that the Israelis will bomb Iran's nuclear weapons program soon. By 'soon' I mean between now and October. Israel views the Iranian bomb as a threat to it's very existence. Israel has only two options in dealing with the Iranian bomb: either stop the program, or live life every day with the threat of being wiped off the face of the earth. Living life like that is not viable. I believe the Israelis will launch a attack by themselves. The Israelis don't have to hit every single target that is part of the Iranian nuclear program to succeed. If they inflict enough damage and /or kill enough nuclear technicians to set the Iran bomb project back, that will be a win for them. I don't believe that the US will actively participate in the bombing strikes. If the US is involved it will be on the sidelines in the form of Tanker/Electronic Warfare/Jamming support. The main US participation will be in the form of the US giving overflight rights to the Israeli Air Force as the strike package flies over Iraqi airspace.


What could be the possible Iranian reactions? That depends honestly on a lot of factors that I'll admit I'm not knowledgeable enough to talk about, but here I go:

The Iranians have publicly stated that if attacked, they will close down the Straits of Hormuz. Yes, the Straits are a pretty narrow choke point, but to totally close it down and prevent shipping to exit/enter the Gulf is still a challenge. Their navy is a joke. When the Iranian navy went up against the US Navy in the late 1980's (Operation Preying Mantis) Their navy was soundly thrashed. Today, they have a few ex-Russian Kilo-class subs, but I don't think the overall material condition of the subs and also their crew training standards are that high. They do have a lot of small fast speedboats. If they load one up with explosives and suicide it into a tanker that will probably kill a tanker. They could get very lucky and sink a tanker right in the straits, but even that outcome will hurt the Iranians too. After all, Iran exports oil out of the gulf just like everybody else. Since the only way the Iranians make money is by exporting oil, their economy will get crushed if the straits are blocked for a long period of time. The Iranians have in the past dumped contact mines into the gulf and damaged a few tankers, but again, if the Iranians succeed with the mines, their own economy takes a hit too.

Since it looks like any Iranian attempt to shut down the Straits will hurt them just as much as everyone else, what other cards can the Iranians play? Iran possesses a number of ground missiles with the range to hit targets across the gulf. they could hit US bases in the gulf. However, we have anti-missile systems like Patriot to handle this threat. Besides, if one of those missiles goes off target and say, instead hits downtown Kuwait City, then the Iranians may have to deal with Israel airstrikes against them turning into other gulf nations taking up arms against them too.

The best course of action the Iranians have is doing something against Israel. They can use their surrogates in Syria and Hezbollah to launch terror attacks in Israel and/or step up the never-ending rocket strikes on Israeli border communities. I don't think the Syrians would launch conventional military attacks across the Golan. But, if they did, the Syrian Military would have a couple very exciting days before getting wiped out. If the Syrians did throw in with the Iranians, the end result would be Israeli Merkava tanks parked on the lawn of the Syrian presidential palace in Damascus and baby Assad taking a one-way flight to Tehran (provided he hadn't already been bombed or his presidential jet smoked out of the sky as he attempted to flee).

Another factor to consider in any Iranian reaction to airstrikes on it's nuclear facility is the Iranian national will to respond to airstrikes. Yes , the Iran nuke program is considered a point of pride by the Iranian people. but, if the Iranian people realize that their nuke program is hurting them they will probably drop support for it. There is already high Inflation and Unemployment along with low Economic growth. The Iranian leadership is already unpopular because of the domestic economic issues, if their desire to possess nukes causes a great deal of national pain...... well, Iran is a country that has had a revolution, nothing says the people can't have a second one to throw out the religious leadership. Granted, Iran is a police state, so a popular overthrow of the government is unlikely but not impossible. There are way too many possibilities to consider when thinking about a popular overthrow of the government (for example, would the Iranian military back up the government or side with the people?) to write about right now. but I do think a popular overthrow of the religious leadership is possible.

What would a attack on Iran's nuclear program mean for the rest of the world? The price of oil will shoot up, that is a given. I could see Crude oil trading at about $200/barrel in the aftermath of any strike on Iran. Gold and Silver would also shoot higher (for the purposes of full disclosure, I'm a self-employed day-trader, I currently have small buy positions in both gold and silver because of the possibility of strikes on Iran). I think the price of Crude would depend on the amount and type of airstrikes against Iran. Again, this involves too many variables to consider (if the airstrikes are a single day's worth of airstrikes versus a days long campaign, if only Iranian nuke program targets are hit , instead of strikes that include Iranian military targets, if Syria decides to throw down with Iran, etc.).

One other possibility to consider is the effect a strike against Iranian nuclear assets would have on the coming US presidential contest in November. Once more, there are too many possibilities to write about, but I think the airstrikes would hurt the Obama campaign and the Democrats. Why? they stand together against any possibility of domestic oil drilling here. If oil goes to $200/barrel with the resulting rise in domestic gas prices this will kill any Dem chances to win in November.

To wrap things up, here is where I see things. I believe the Israelis will hit the Iranian nuclear weapons program soon, within the next few months. Crude oil prices will move higher in the aftermath of any strikes. Their exact rise and how long they stay at elevated levels involve too many probabilities to figure out fully. Other commodity prices, especially, Gold and Silver will rise also. The range of possibilities in the aftermath of airstrikes goes from no Iranian reaction all the way to a regional war that could include the use of WMDs. Sorry, this is the best I can do for outcomes. There are just too many things that need to be considered when pondering the aftermath of airstrikes.

Guest Post: Never Forget

This is another in a series of guest posts by long time lgf poster chicagodudewhotrades. He can be reached at chicagodudewhotrades@gmail.com:

This week marks the 66th anniversary of the Battle of Midway. The Battle was fought from 3-June to 7-June 1942. This was a battle that changed the course of the Pacific war. The decisive moment of the battle happened at 10:25 am on June 4th. At that moment, carrier-launched SBD Dauntless dive-bombers arrived over the Japanese carrier formation steaming below and commenced a unopposed dive bombing attack. Within 5 minutes 3 Japanese top-line aircraft carriers (the Akagi, Kaga, and Soryu) were hit and mortally wounded. However, this unopposed attack by our dive bombers came at a heavy price. In the minutes before, 3 squadrons of TBD Devastator torpedo planes launched valiant but unsuccessful attacks on the Japanese carriers. The torpedo planes were cut to pieces by the Japanese Combat Air Patrol of A6M 'Zero' fighters and anti-aircraft fire. However, the attack of the torpedo planes pulled the Zeros down to wave top level while the dive bombers arrived high overhead.

Before this battle the Japanese held the initiative in the Pacific. After those crucial few minutes, the Japanese never again had the strategic initiative for the rest of the war. In memory of the gallant sacrifice of the torpedo squadrons, here are the rosters of the squadron personal:

U.S.S. YORKTOWN
Torpedo Three (VT-3)

Pilots Radiomen-Gunners
LT.Comdr. Lance E. Massey Leo E. Perry
Commanding Officer San Diego, California
Descanso, California

Richard W. Suesens Harold C. Lundy Jr.
Waterloo, Iowa Lincoln, Nebraska

Wesley F. Osmus Benjamin R. Dodson Jr
Chicago, Illinois Durham, North Carolina

David J. Roche Richard M. Hansen
Hibbing, Minnesota Lakefield, Minnesota

Patrick H. Hart John R. Cole
Los Angeles, California La Grange, Georgia

John W. Haas Raymond J. Darce
San Diego, California New Orleans, Louisiana

Oswald A. Powers Joseph E. Mandeville
Detroit, Michigan Manchester, New Hampshire

Leonard L. Smith William A. Phillips
Ontario, California Olympia, Washington

Curtis W. Howard Charles L. Moore
Olympia, Washington Amherst, Texas

Carl A. Osberg Troy C. Barkley
Manchester, New Hampshire Faulkner, Mississippi

Robert B. Brazier
Salt Lake City, Utah

Survivors
Harry L. Corl Lloyd F. Childers
Saginaw, Michigan Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

Wilhelm G. Esders
St. Joseph, Missouri


U.S.S. ENTERPRISE
Torpedo Six (VT-6)

Pilots Radiomen-Gunners

LT. Comdr Eugene E. Lindsey Charles T. Grenat
Commanding Officer Honolulu, Hawaii
San Diego, California

Severin L. Rombach Wilburn F. Glenn
Cleveland, Ohio Austin, Texas

John T. Eversole John U. Lane
Pocatello, Idaho Rockford, Illinois

Randolph M. Holder Gregory J. Durawa
Jackson, Mississippi Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Arthur V. Ely Arthur R. Lindgren
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania Montclair, New Jersey

Flourenoy G. Hodges John H. Bates
Statesboro, Georgia Valparaiso, Indiana

Paul J. Riley Edwin J. Mushinski
Hot Springs, Arkansas Tampa, Florida

John W. Brock John M. Blundell
Montgomery, Alabama Fort Wayne, Indiana

Lloyd Thomas Harold F. Littlefield
Chauncey, Ohio Bennington, Vermont

Survivors
Albert W. Winchell Douglas M. Cossitt
Webster City, Iowa Oakland, California

Robert E. Laub William C. Humphrey, Jr.
Richland, Missouri Milledgeville, Georgia

Edward Heck, Jr. Doyle L. Ritchey
Carthage, Missouri Ryan, Oklahoma

Irvin H. McPherson William D. Horton
Glen Ellyn, Illinois Little Rock, Arkansas

Stephen B. Smith Wilfred N. McCoy
Mason City, Iowa San Diego, California

U.S.S. HORNET
Torpedo Eight (VT-8)
Pilots Radiomen-Gunners

LT. Comdr. John C. Waldron Horace F. Dobbs RMC
Commanding Officer San Diego, California
Fort Pierre, South Dakota

Lt. James C. Owens, Jr. Amelio Maffei RM1
Los Angeles, California Santa Rosa, California

Lt. Raymond A. Moore Tom H. Pettry RM1
Richmond, Virginia Ellison Ridge, West Virginia

Lt. (j.g.) Jefferson D. Woodson Otway D. Creasy, Jr. RM2
Beverley Hills, Calfornia Vinton, Virginia

Lt. (j.g.) George M. Campbell Ronald. J. Fisher RM2
San Diego, California Denver, Colorado

Ens. William W. Abercrombie Bernard P. Phelps RM2
Merriam, Kansas Lovington, Illinois

Ens. Ulvert M. Moore William F. Sawhill RM3
Bluefield, West Virginia Mansfield, Ohio

Ens. William W. Creamer Francis S. Polston Sea2
Riverside, California Nashville, Missouri

Lt. (j.g.) John P. Gray Max A. Calkins RM3
Columbia, Missouri Wymore, Nebraska

Ens. Harold J. Ellison George A. Field RM3
Buffalo, New York Buffalo, New York

Ens. Henry R. Kenyon, Jr. Darwin L. Clark RM2
Mount Vernon, New York Rodney, Iowa

Ens. William R. Evans, Jr. Ross E. Bibb, Jr. RM2
Indianapolis, Indiana Warrior, Alabama

Ens. Grant W. Teats Hollis Martin RM2
Sheridan, Oregon Bremerton, Washington

Robert B. Miles Aviation Pilot 1C Ashwell L. Picou Sea2
San Diego, California Houma, Louisiana

Robert K. Huntington RM3
South Pasadena, California

Survivor

Ens. George H. Gay, Jr.
Houston, Texas

The most complete rosters I found for these squadrons is found in a fictional novel. Herman Wouk's 'War and Remberence' (pp 410-413). I don't like relying on a piece of fiction, but Mr. Wouk strived for accuracy in his fiction. I cross-checked his list against other non-fiction sources, and it appears accurate. However, if I have made any mistakes in names, ranks, or hometowns, I mean no disrespect.

The men of these squadrons didn't die in vain. Their sacrifice helped defeat tyranny and make the world a better place.

Guest Post: Some Thoughts on Politics and the Election

This is yet another guest posting from chicagodudewhotrades.

Here is how he thinks the next few months and the election will shake out. If you want to comment/argue/whatever on this post this, feel free to contact him at chicagodudewhotrades@gmail.com or post in the comments here.


Hillary: She will not drop out. She is in this until the convention. This is her only chance to make it to the White House and she knows this. She is ambitious. She has been working to get to the White House since she pushed Bill to run for Governor of Arkansas. She is still a viable candidate for the Dem nomination. Neither she or Obama can win the nomination without resorting to super delegates. I have been watching some of the TV pundits show surprise today about why she is still campaigning. They are wondering why she won't drop out and help unify the party for November. I can answer that question. She only gives a damn about herself. If she has to burn down the party to get the nomination, then she burns down the party. The Clintons have only ever given a damn about themselves. Anybody who thinks Hillery won't go full out to get the nomination doesn't understand the Clintons.

Obama: If Obama gets the nomination, I think he will be this generation's McGovern. He will win Illinois and a few other states and that will be it. I think the man is radioactive. I think there are more Rev. Wright/Bill Ayers/Tony Rezko people and stories out there. One of the reasons he got elected to the Senate was because his GOP rival dropped out due to a sleazy sex/divorce scandal. Obama has never really been tested. He has never run a national campaign. I don't think this nation is going to elect a 1-term Senator President in a time of conflict. Obama's hard core base is the African-American community. He can not win with their support alone. I hate to be cynical, but he won't get the youth vote either, They never show up on Election Day. Remember 'Obama Girl'? She sang songs about him, but she didn't even vote for him because she was too busy at a party when NY/NJ voted months ago.

Denver: This convention will teach the Dems not to crawl in bed with the loony left. Move-On, Daily Kos, Code Pink , etc may be loud, but that is it. Joe Lieberman warned his party about following the far left. The Dem party responded to Joe by kicking him to the curb. He will have the last laugh on this matter. It seems like every group with more than 5 members will be outside the Denver convention center this summer. Some of the radical groups are promising violence in the streets. With Hillery fighting for the nomination inside the convention and possible violence out in the streets, Denver could be ugly. I think people will see the problems in Denver and realize the Dems are not the answer for the country and pull the lever for McCain. Whoever wins the Dem nomination will anger the hard core supporters of the loser, and those folks will either sit on their hands on Election Day or even vote for McCain. A friend of mine thinks Hillery and Obama will reach a impasse on the nomination and somebody like Al Gore gets to run for the Dems (I'm rooting for the Gore Option because that would be fun as hell)

McCain: Honest truth, he is not my first choice to be the GOP standard bearer, But I'll take a luke-warm GOP'er over a Dem any day of the week. I think Conservatives who don't like McCain much will do the same. I hope he picks Michael Steele as his VP. Steele will take off the board the Dem's ability to say they have the only African-American in the race . Plus, Steele will go a long way to bring the conservatives back to the fold.

Bottom line: John McCain will be the next president of the United States of America

Guest Post: Is America in Economic Decline?

The following is a guest post from chicagodudewhotrades, a poster at Little Green Footballs. He's put together the following piece about the US and world economy. If you have questions, he's provided his email address (chicagodudewhotrades@gmail.com) or you can post your comments as usual. Without further ado:

Is America in economic decline? Everyday, it seems there is a new economic statistic about a weakening US economy or a news report about the US$ dropping in value against other currencies. My answer is: NO. Maybe right now the dollar is at a low level and portions of the American economy could be better, but the overall economy is solid and the dollar weakness is temporary. If you read history, it seems to be a good rule to never underestimate the American people or our economy. In fact, i think some of the nation's best economic times lie ahead.

I'm writing this mostly because I'm a member of a very popular website called Little Green Footballs (www.littlegreenfootballs.com). Due to my online name (chicagodudewhotrades) I get asked a lot of stock market and economic questions by my fellow LGF'ers. Writing this I hope will help my LGF friends out. This is my first attempt at writing something like this, so don't beat me up too bad!!!

I'm also writing this because I get tired of the mostly negative coverage of the economy by the national media. This is my small attempt to try and convince my fellow Americans that the economy isn't as bad as portrayed.

What gives me the right to write about economic issues? In a word: Nothing. I'm not a economist or a CEO of a business. I don't have a Ph.D in Economics or International Finance. The bulk of my professional trading experience comes from several years spent working as a clerk in the trading pits of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. However, I have been able to make a decent living from day-trading the last few years. Day-trading is a very brutal, Darwinian profession. You either make money at this or go bankrupt. I'm still doing this, so I figure my ideas and advice have some credibility.

I think the best way to explain why I believe America's best economic days are ahead of us is to run down what is happening in the world and what I think may happen in the future.

Europe

The European Union has become a huge entity whose member states have a combined population of nearly 500 Million (1). However, I have come to believe that they are too big, too slow ,and most damaging, too bureaucratic.

Yes, right now the Euro is doing well against the Dollar. However, people seem to forget that a few years ago, the euro was trading at a record low of 82 cents against the dollar. (2)

Inflation is above the European Central Bank's public goal of 2% and rising (3). Western Europe has also always had systematic higher unemployment historically than the US. Eventually, economic fundamentals like these will catch up to the Euro.

You may read a lot about the grim future of Social Security. That is true. Basically, starting in a few years, more money will start being taken out of the program than going into it. However, Europe faces the same demographic issue. The big difference is that the working-age population of Europe is declining while America's is increasing.

Asia

Today when you think of Asia, one country comes to mind: China. China is a huge country with a huge population. Because of low wages, China has become the manufacturing center of the world. All that manufacturing has brought huge sums of wealth into China.

But China has many issues. All that manufacturing has lead to huge environmental problems (4). Thanks to China's brutal 1-child policy and a Asian cultural preference for male babies, China has demographic imbalances in their youngest generations. How can a nation be successful with a demographic imbalance like that? China's biggest problem however, may be it's own Communist government. Folks, I don't know any other way to say it.: Communism , Socialism, etc, just doesn't work.. Eventually, China will pay a huge price because of their system of government. Free, democratic, open market economies work, nothing else comes close. It is truly that simple and basic.

Africa

It is hard to write off a entire continent, but unfortunately that is what I'm basically doing with Africa. I don't think Africa has moved beyond a tribal identity yet. They will not grow or be economically successful until the people of Africa start thinking in terms of national identities and not just tribal.

Middle East

Currently the Middle East is doing well because of high oil prices that bring huge amounts of wealth into their nations. Historically, however nations with commodity-dependent economies do not succeed in the long run. There is a theory in economic circles called the "commodity curse" . The theory states that commodity-dependent nations get politically and economically lazy because of the easy money pouring into their economy. I think this will happen in the Middle East someday. The Mid-East has one principle export: oil. What happens when that export runs out? There are questions about the true proven reserves of both Saudi Arabia and Kuwait (5). Back in the late 1990's when oil prices were low. Saudi government bonds were rated "junk" status. This will give you a idea of what happens to the economic prospects of the region when the wells run dry.


Latin America

Latin America seems to be taken a turn for the worse lately. A couple governments seem to be going back down the Socialist path. Once again, democratic free market economies work, everything else doesn't come close. Democratic open market Brazil and Colombia are doing well. The ones going down the socialist path like Venezuela and Bolivia will have problems.

I see some parallels between the Middle East of today and the Japan of the 1980's. Remember how everyone thought back then that "Japan, Inc." was going to be the world's largest economy and how they would be the globe's dominant economic power? How did that work out for Japan? I do think that the sub-prime mess and resulting housing price slump will continue to hurt the American economy.But this is a incredibly flexible economy that will survive this mess. In fact, i think the sub-prime problem will hurt other economies worse than ours just because our national economy is so resilient and others aren't.

Sources

1. Website of the European Union www.europa.eu

2. Wikipedia's entry for the Euro Currency

3. Website of the European Central Bank www.ecb.eu

4. Financial Times article. China Report. Environment: 'Devasting price to pay for rampant growth' By Jamil Anderlini. Published: 9 Oct 2007

5. Reuters. "Kuwait oil reserves only half official estimate-PIW" . Published 20 Jan 2006