The Changing Political Landscape

2010 is shaping up to be quite an interesting election year after all. While many experts would agree that Democrats would expect to lose seats in the House and Senate and perhaps some statehouses, the numbers weren't expected to be a deluge.

That's why yesterday's surprise announcements that Sen. Bryan Dorgan (D-ND) and Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT/Friend of Mozilo) would not seek reelection are so surprising. They were considered safe seats this year, and now their retirements open the door for challengers. Democrats had expected to lose some seats, but the prospects of holding together a filibuster proof majority in the US Senate now appear dim.

Richard Blumenthal, Connecticut's Democratic attorney general, said Wednesday he would run for Dodd's seat. The ripple effect means that elections down the line will be affected by the incumbent retirements and provide opportunities for fresh blood to come into the political process.

Further, another Democrat, Gov. Bill Ritter of Colorado, will not seek a second term.

Then there's word that Harold Ford, Jr. (D-TN) may attempt to unseat New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand.

Even David Paterson, the embattled Democratic governor of New York, isn't safe from attacks by the White House on down and that's even with potential Republican challenger Rudy Giuliani saying he wont run.

All this opens the possibility that Republicans can eliminate the filibuster proof majority in the Senate and cut into the Democrats overwhelming numbers in the House as well as improve their numbers at the state and local level.

Yet, all is not well for Republicans. Michael Steele, the RNC chairman, didn't exactly have kind words for the GOP yesterday, and pretty much called Republicans on the carpet for their poor performance over the past 20 years, a rebuke of both Bush Administrations and a squandering of their Congressional fortunes. Scandals, corruption, and a willful disregard for fiscal responsibility all play a role in the GOP fortunes, and that many Republicans are enthralled with creationism and anti-science agendas isn't going to attract new voters and support among those who have found that the Democrats tax and spend agenda is unsustainable.

Democrat overreach in trying to ram through the widely unpopular health care overhaul isn't going to help the Democrats, but knowing that the Democrats are bound to lose seats will only encourage Democrat leaders in Congress to push harder to get a deal done.

The same political calculus is pushing the gay marriage agenda in New Jersey; Gov. Corzine's term ends in just about two weeks, and his successor, Chris Christie has said that he would veto a gay marriage bill. Supporters don't know if they have the numbers to pass the bills in the Democrat controlled legislature, so if they can't get it done now, they'll have to wait at least four years before trying again. The State Senate has scheduled a vote for today.

Late Night Vote Killed Immigration Bill?

That's what Politico.com is reporting. They note that a late night vote on an amendment to the huge immigration bill may have killed the deal. The amendment was proposed by Sen. Bryan Dorgan (D-SD) to eliminate the temporary guest worker program after five years:

By a one-vote margin, just after midnight, the Senate adopted a potential deal-killer amendment to the immigration bill.

The late-night voting spree tested the bipartisan Senate coalition's ability to swat aside so-called killer amendments, at times using procedural maneuvers to block their passage.

But they couldn't thwart adoption of an amendment from Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-S.D.) that would disband the temporary guest worker program after five years. It was unclear how the coalition would proceed.

Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., told the Associated Press that he or his allies would slightly reword Dorgan’s amendment and hope for a change of heart by one or more senators who “don’t want to kill the bill.”

Two weeks ago, the Dorgan amendment failed by a one-vote margin after Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.) convinced Sen. Daniel Akaka (D-Hawaii) to change his vote on the Senate floor. It received broad Democratic support, and its inclusion could make the bill more palatable to Democrats, who dislike aspects of the guest worker program. However, the program is crucial to winning support from business groups.

This time, two strong opponents of the bill -- Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.) and Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) -- switched their votes from "no" two weeks ago to "yes" this morning, as did Sen. Mike Enzi (R-Wyo.) and Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.).

Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) and Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) went from a "yes" two weeks ago to a "no" this morning.

The missing senators were Chris Dodd (D-Conn.), a presidential candidate, who has voted for the Dorgan amendment, and Tim Johnson (D-S.D.), who is recovering from a brain hemorrhage.

Those who opposed the immigration bill, such as DeMint and Bunning, appear to have made the strategic and tactical move here to support a poison bill provision (the sunset provision on the guest worker program) that would effectively kill the entire package.

It remains to be seen whether immigration bill backers would have enough votes to get this deal through. The Washington Post claims that the immigration bill has sufficient support, but only barely. There were other amendments made last night as well, which alter the "flavor" of the bill from grossly distasteful to mildly distasteful:

Still, the bill took a decidedly conservative turn last night with the adoption of amendments that would at once declare English the national language and designate English the "common language" of the United States. The Senate also blocked the bill's newly legalized undocumented workers from receiving the earned-income tax credit, while denying legalized undocumented workers any Social Security benefits they may have earned after overstaying their visa.

Senators also undid a provision that would keep information from visa applications confidential.

But those changes were not immediately hailed as deal-breakers. The vote to sunset the guest-worker program came so late that its impact was not clear. The known challenges to the bargain were defeated, however. One such proposal, by Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.), would have blocked legalization for a broad array of legal infractions, including scrapes with immigration courts.

UPDATE:
Michelle Malkin has been covering all the events late into the night and has a mondo roundup of the amendments that passed and failed.

UPDATE:
If you want an example of why I think this immigration bill is ineffective and would not alleviate any of the problems that its proponents claim would be solved, I point you to the implementation of passport changes earlier this year that require US citizens going to Mexico, Canada and the Carribean to have passports. The government can't get that program operating correctly or process applications timely, and we're supposed to believe that illegal aliens who have already shown that they do not adhere to the law would follow the procedures or that the government has the capacity to process said forms properly (ie conduct proper background checks and not some asinine less than 24-hour check? I don't think so.

UPDATE:
The immigration bill is dead for now after the pro-amnesty bill folks couldn't get enough votes on a motion to end debate (cloture). Hot Air and Michelle Malkin have the details. Michelle has been live blogging the debate and various procedural moves all day long, and the latest move to end debate failed 45-50, which signaled to Reid that he simply didn't have the votes.

He's said that he'd try to pass various parts of an immigration package over the next few weeks.