Hurricane Isaac Surprises With Flooding and Storm Surge

Hurricane Isaac isn't the strongest hurricane to hit the Gulf Coast or near New Orleans, but it's creating havoc because the storm is moving so slowly. The winds aren't the problem with the storm, it's the flooding rains and accompanying storm surge while the storm is progressing at a crawl.

The storm surge is higher than models had predicted yesterday. As Jeff Masters notes:

Isaac is bringing large and dangerous storm surge to the coast from Central Louisiana to the Panhandle of Florida. At 10 pm EDT, here were some of the storm surge values being recorded at NOAA tide gauges:

6.2' Waveland, MS
9.9' Shell Beach, LA
3.0' Pensacola, FL
4.4' Pascagoula, MS
3.4' Mobile, AL

The 9.9' storm surge at Shell Beach, which is in Lake Borgne 20 miles southeast of New Orleans, exceeds the 9.5' surge recorded there during Category 2 Hurricane Gustav of 2008. Research scientists running a Doppler on Wheels radar located on top of the 16' levees in Plaquemines Parish near Port Sulphur, LA, reported at 8:30 pm EDT that a storm surge of 14' moved up the Mississippi River, and was just 2' below the levees. Waves on top of the surge were cresting over the west side of the levee. Needless to say, they were very nervous. Over the past hour, the surge has retreated some, and waves were no longer lapping over the top of the levee. This is probably due to the fact that we're headed towards low tide. A storm surge of 9.5' has moved up the Mississippi River to the Carrrollton gauge in New Orleans. This is not a concern for the levees in New Orleans, since the storm surge has now brought the river up to 2.5' above its normal water level, which was 7' low due to the 2012 U.S. drought. The highest rise of the water above ground level will occur Wednesday morning over much of Southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle, when the tide comes back in. It is clear now that this storm surge event will be as dangerous as that of Category 2 Hurricane Gustav of 2008.

Plaquemines Parish is reporting that levees in the area have been overtopped by the storm surge and caused significant flooding. The levees involved aren't part of the network of levees upgraded or built to protect New Orleans following Hurricane Katrina.

The parish levees on the east bank are about 8.5 feet high, and some estimates have storm surge at 13 feet. At daylight, the National Guard is expected to launch a larger rescue effort, coming into the east bank through St. Bernard. After the wind subsides, other water and air rescue efforts likely will launch.

While federal levees in the area appear to be holding, problems in Plaquemines Parish are occurring in areas not protected by the federal system, which was revamped after Katrina.

Guy Laigast, director of the parish's emergency preparedness, says that an 18-mile stretch of the parish east bank back levees might be overtopped from Braithwaite to White Ditch and that some points might be seeing 110 miles per hour winds. There are many varying reports of wind speeds, generally ranging between 80 and 110 miles per hour.

"The devastation of my house is worse than Katrina and the flooding in Woodlawn is worse than Katrina, so those things tell me that the damage on the east bank is worse than Katrina," Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser said this morning.

So far, the New Orleans flood control systems are doing their job and protecting the city from the Mississippi River, the flooding rains, but this storm is going to take a long time before moving away from the region.

Law enforcement has been working to rescue those caught in the flood waters, but private citizens are also busy helping out their neighbors and others stranded by the flooding. One father-son team has already rescued 23 from the rising waters. Parts of the Gulf Coast could see up to 20 inches of rain with 7 to 14 inches falling over a widespread area.

The storm has left hundreds of thousands without power across the Gulf Coast,

Major Tornado Outbreak Rips Through Southern US; 54+ Dead

A major tornado outbreak has ripped across large parts of the American South, including Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, and that line of storms.

Particularly hard hit is a stretch of Alabama from Tuscaloosa to Birmingham.

This video shows a tornado ripping through Tuscaloosa:



This tornado was reported to have stayed on the ground from Tuscaloosa through Birmingham before continuing its deadly path to the north and east of the city. That's more than 50 miles as the crow flies. It was a massive storm and was estimated to be more than a mile wide at several points.

The storms have killed 37 people, and the death toll is expected to rise overnight as areas are still being hit with tornadoes and severe storms.

The South usually sees lots of tornado activity in the early spring, before the tornado activity moves into what's traditionally known as Tornado Alley. That has to do with the weather patterns that bring in large air masses from different directions and significant temperature differentials. That causes the air to mix violently along the boundary line, creating conditions favorable to tornado development.

The storm front is sliding to the East, which means that the potential for deadly tornadoes is expected to move into Georgia, the Carolinas, and the Middle Atlantic. It's also possible that some severe storms are possible in the NYC metro area, although at the moment the concern in our part is flooding, not tornados or severe wind events.

Much of the Eastern part of the US is blanketed in watches and warnings, and those alerts can be tracked here.

UPDATE:
At least 54 people have been killed in the ongoing tornado outbreak.

2008 Pre-Election Voter Registration Mess Continues

Who said that Chicago politics was boring (vote early, vote often, and bring out yer dead)? Six Alabama counties voter rolls exceed populations. How exactly is that possible?

Six Alabama counties have more people registered to vote than adults of voting age.

The Birmingham News compared the state's voter registration numbers with the Census Bureau's population estimates and found more registered voters than voting-age adults in Conecuh, Greene, Lowndes, Perry, Washington and Wilcox counties.

Statewide, the voter registration rolls equal 85% of Alabama's voting age population.

The News reported that the biggest variations were in Greene and Perry counties.

Greene County had 7,540 people on its voter rolls at the end of September, but the Census Bureau estimates its adult population at 6,834.

It's a mystery. At least the local papers there are trying to track down what's going on, and doing what the state election officials haven't - checking to see whether the numbers make sense. The Birmingham Press has an interesting observation:

The counties with 100 percent registration are some of Alabama's least populous, so an error in the population estimate or a few extra voters on the rolls would have a bigger impact statistically than in larger counties.

And that spells potential trouble.

Rinse and repeat around the nation and you get the idea of just how badly the election officials and politicians have failed voters since 2000. All of their claims that they would fix the broken system are empty promises - they've fixed the problem alright.

Ohio's Secretary of State managed to avoid statutory obligations to check voter rolls to ensure that they are valid because the Ohio GOP didn't have standing to sue. The Supreme Court ruling didn't address the question of whether Ohio's Secretary of State was fulfilling her obligations under the federal law because they adduced that only the Attorney General can bring suit (which begs the question as to why no one at the Justice Department has taken action).

The New York Times claims that six states, including Colorado, are not complying with that federal law - the 2002 HAVA, by trimming voter rolls within 90 days of the election.

States have been trying to follow the Help America Vote Act of 2002 and remove the names of voters who should no longer be listed; but for every voter added to the rolls in the past two months in some states, election officials have removed two, a review of the records shows.

The six states seem to be in violation of federal law in two ways. Some are removing voters from the rolls within 90 days of a federal election, which is not allowed except when voters die, notify the authorities that they have moved out of state, or have been declared unfit to vote.

Some of the states are improperly using Social Security data to verify registration applications for new voters.

In addition to the six swing states, three more states appear to be violating federal law. Alabama and Georgia seem to be improperly using Social Security information to screen registration applications from new voters. And Louisiana appears to have removed thousands of voters after the federal deadline for taking such action.

Under federal law, election officials are supposed to use the Social Security database to check a registration application only as a last resort, if no record of the applicant is found on state databases, like those for driver's licenses or identification cards.

The requirement exists because using the federal database is less reliable than the state lists, and is more likely to incorrectly flag applications as invalid. Many state officials seem to be using the Social Security lists first.

It's rather telling that even federal law admits that the Social Security lists are inaccurate. What does that say about the federal program when you can't rely on its databases? Did anyone consider that the state databases are themselves a source of concern and inaccuracy and may be no more accurate than the federal databases?

This is a mess of huge proportions, and the Times is more concerned about states who are actively trying to cull the rolls of those who are disallowed from voting (dead, felons, illegal aliens, etc.) than the efforts of groups like ACORN who put such individuals on voter registrations overwhelming election officials who have to put time and effort into sorting through registrations.

As I previously noted, all the problems open up ample opportunities for fraud, as in New Jersey, where if you are not on the voter rolls, you can not only get a provisional ballot, but you can insist on getting a judge to allow you to cast a ballot directly (with no way to check after the fact whether the person was actually legally able to vote).