A blog for all seasons; A blog for one; A blog for all. As the 11th most informative blog on the planet, I have a seared memory of throwing my Time 2006 Man of the Year Award over the railing at Time Warner Center.
Justice. Only Justice Shall Thou Pursue
Britain is poised to move fighter jets to bases from where they can help enforce a no-fly zone over Libya, after the UN Security Council gave the green light to conduct air strikes against Colonel Gaddafi’s forces, Prime Minister David Cameron said on Friday.
“Preparations to deploy these aircraft have already started and in the coming hours they will move to airbases from where they can start to take the necessary action.” Mr Cameron told parliament.
French president Nicholas Sarkozy will host talks in Paris on Saturday to discuss co-operation and co-ordinated action against Libya with representatives “at the highest level possible level” of the European Union, Arab League and African Union.
The UN Security Council on Thursday night approved a resolution authorising “all necessary measures’’ to protect civilians under threat from the Libyan regime.
As Col Gaddafi threatened to launch an imminent assault on the rebel stronghold of Benghazi, the Security Council passed a resolution endorsing a no-fly zone to halt government troops that are now around 60 miles from the city.
The UN Security Council also authorised “all necessary measures” – code for military action – to protect civilians against attacks by Col Gaddafi’s forces. Following the vote, Barack Obama, the US president, conferred with David Cameron, UK prime minister, and Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, to co-ordinate “next steps”, according to the White House.
A no fly zone would give rebel groups the opportunity to regroup without fear of airborne attack by Khadafi loyalists. Khadafi's thugs have been using airstrikes to beat back rebel advances towards Tripoli and retake territory captured by rebel groups including several important oil facilities.
A no fly zone is not without serious risks, and could draw in foreign nations, including the US, into a potentially ugly civil war. Still, the benefit of preventing further harm to civilians is the driving concern here - Khadafi has shown a willingness to attack civilian populations, not including the attacks against protesters.
UPDATE:
Has the no fly zone already prompted Khadafi to moderate? According to MSNBC, his foreign minister is claiming that the Khadafi loyalists will stop military further military actions, but I wouldn't trust that to last.
Efforts to string up power lines to restore power to the backup systems are underway, as is efforts to manually pump water onto the stricken reactors to cool them down.
Japan on Friday increased the severity of the crisis at the Fukushima site from 4 to 5 on a 7-point international nuclear event scale.
Firefighters are dousing water on damaged reactor buildings with powerful hoses. But they have to limit their time inside the complex due to the high radiation levels.
Japanese engineers also are extending an emergency power cable to the nuclear reactor complex. A steady supply of power could enable workers at the Fukushima plant to get water pumps working again.
Meanwhile, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Yukiya Amano, says Japan is racing against time to cool the overheating reactors. Amano arrived in Japan Friday to meet with top Japanese officials and learn how the IAEA can help with the crisis.
The increase in the nuclear accident's severity rating comes shortly after the chief secretary of Japan's cabinet, Yukio Edano, tried to calm fears about the radiation. He said elevated radiation levels detected kilometers away from the plant were not a health risk.
The International Atomic Energy Agency says that Japanese authorities have told them they have successfully laid a cable line to reactor number two at the nuclear plant. However, it is not clear how close workers are to actually restoring power.
Back-up diesel generators that might have averted the disaster were positioned in a basement, where they were overwhelmed by waves.
“This in the country that invented the word Tsunami,” said Brockman, who also worked at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. “Japan is going to have a look again at its regulatory process and whether it’s intrusive enough.”
The cascade of events at Fukushima had been foretold in a report published in the U.S. two decades ago. The 1990 report by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, an independent agency responsible for safety at the country’s power plants, identified earthquake-induced diesel generator failure and power outage leading to failure of cooling systems as one of the “most likely causes” of nuclear accidents from an external event.
While the report was cited in a 2004 statement by Japan’s Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency, it seems adequate measures to address the risk were not taken by Tokyo Electric, said Jun Tateno, a former researcher at the Japan Atomic Energy Agency and professor at Chuo University.
Accident Foretold
“It’s questionable whether Tokyo Electric really studied the risks,” Tateno said in an interview. “That they weren’t prepared for a once in a thousand year occurrence will not go over as an acceptable excuse.”
Hajime Motojuku, a utility spokesman, said he couldn’t immediately confirm whether the company was aware of the report.
That raises questions as to the preparedness of Japan to deal with a nuclear emergency, why they didn't have sufficient stocks of boron on hand to deal with a potential disaster, and why they didn't move sooner to attempt to add boron to the water being poured on the reactors.
Also, the spent fuel pool at reactor 4 is among the priority concerns because there appears to be damage to the pool itself, allowing water to leak and affecting the ability to keep the fuel rods submerged and cool. It's a danger because the spent fuel pools aren't designed with containment to the same level as the reactor core is.
The New York Times reports that the US is sending flights of specialized aircraft over Fukushima to get a better sense of what's going on at the stricken reactor complex.
The US has a radically different take on the dangers and status of the reactors from the Japanese and the reactor operator, Toyko Electric (TEPCO). Apparently, the Japanese government has been relying on TEPCO, and the US has been warning the Japanese government that the situation may be far worse than TEPCO was letting on and that the action plan wasn't moving fast enough.
The data was collected in the first use of the Aerial Measurement System, among the most sophisticated devices rushed to Japan by the Obama administration in an effort to help contain a nuclear crisis that a top American nuclear officials said Thursday could go on for weeks. The data show harmful radioactive pollution in the immediate vicinity of the stricken plant — a different standard than the trace amounts of radioactive particles that make up the atmospheric plume covering a much broader area.
While the findings were reassuring in the short term, the United States declined to back away from its warning to Americans to stay at least 50 miles from the plant, a far larger perimeter than the Japanese government has established.
In interviews, American officials said their biggest worry was that a frenetic series of efforts by the Japanese military to get water into the four reactors — including water cannons and fire-fighting helicopters that dumped water but appeared to largely miss their targets — showed few signs of working. Another effort by the Japanese, to hook electric power back up to the plant, only began on Thursday and was likely to take several days to complete — and even then it was unclear how the cooling systems, in reactor buildings battered by the tsunami and then torn apart by hydrogen explosions, would work, if at all.
“What you are seeing are desperate efforts — just throwing everything at it in hopes something will work,” said one American official with long nuclear experience, who would not speak for attribution. “Right now this is more prayer than plan.”
After a day in which American and Japanese officials had radically different assessments of the danger of what is spewing from the plants, the two governments attempted Thursday to join forces. Experts met in Tokyo to compare notes. The United States, with Japanese permission, began to put intelligence-collection aircraft over the site, in hopes of gaining a view for Washington as well as its allies in Tokyo that did not rely on the announcements of officials from the Tokyo Electric Power Company. Officials say they suspect that company has consistently underestimated the risk and moved too slowing to contain the damage.
Aircraft normally used to monitor North Korea’s nuclear weapons activities — a Global Hawk drone and U-2 spy planes — were flying missions over the reactor, trying to help the Japanese government map out its response to the quake, the tsunami and now the nuclear disaster.
It would appear that the Japanese and US are finally beginning to gather data independent of TEPCO, and while there's significant radiation in the vicinity of the stricken reactors - airborne radiation is minimal.
For the first time, it seems that the Japanese government might get a better handle on the nuclear crisis - gathering information that it needs to make critical decisions.
UPDATE:
Curiously, the Japanese have not deployed special robotic systems to deal with the monitoring of the crippled reactors. That's a dangerous oversight, and means that the plant operators are putting their own lives in danger to take measurements that could potentially expose workers to lethal doses.
Tom Lehrer came up with a song showing all the elements of the periodic table at the time. This video shows how they line up in the periodic table:
And apparently, Lehrer struck a chord with Daniel Radcliffe (Harry Potter) to the point where he performed the elements song on television (the Graham Norton show):
Radcliffe is now appearing on Broadway in How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying, and the Norton bit shows that he's got some musical talent. Whether he's got the dancing chops remains to be seen.
Gazan terrorists have never stopped firing kassams and mortars at Israel. It's just that they aren't doing it frequently enough to merit attention; it just blends into the background.
Egyptian security officials on Tuesday said that Egypt's army captured five vehicles smuggling weapons into the country from Sudan, and apparently heading to Gaza, AP reported.
The officials said the vehicles were seized on Sunday after a shootout during which the drivers fled.
They said the trucks, which were captured inside Egypt near the Sudanese border, carried large quantities of mortars, rocket propelled grenades, rifles and explosives, reported AP.
The officials said the weapons were headed to Hamas in Gaza through smuggling tunnels.
Hamas hasn't stopped its preparations for war with Israel, and it has used the lull in fighting since Operation Cast Lead to redouble its efforts to build up its terror infrastructure and capabilities to sustain an assault by Israel.
The death toll continues rising, and is over 3,600, and the number of missing is still over 8,000 as hope fades for finding more survivors. Half a million people are without homes and getting aid to the stricken areas is complicated not only by damaged roads, washed out bridges, and debris fields that stretch on as far as the eye can see, but snow, rain, and the radiation danger from the damaged Fukushima reactors is omnipresent on the minds of Japanese and the rescue crews sent in to the area to look for victims and assisting survivors. It's a herculean effort to get supplies into the damaged areas even without worrying about a nuclear crisis.
The damage from the quake, tsunami, and nuclear emergency is likely to cost upwards of $200 billion, making it the costliest natural disaster in history, and it puts tremendous pressure on the Japanese government.
There are further reports that a second reactor at the stricken nuclear power complex was damaged and may be leaking radiation. Reactor 2 has been the focus of scrutiny since an explosion rocked that reactor facility and appears to have damaged the suppression chamber that holds the water and steam necessary to cool the reactor core. While experts believe that the containment structures at reactors 1 and 3 are intact, they aren't sure about the damaged reactor 2.
As a result of the explosions, radioactivity levels rose sharply around the Fukushima Daiichi plant on Tuesday. The Nuclear Energy Institute reported that a dose rate of 1.19 rems per hour was observed at the site boundary and dose of 40 rems per hour was seen close to the plant (a rem is a measure of biological damage to tissue). The 1.19 rem reading dropped to about 0.06 rems per hour later in the day, however.
The readings are considered high, engineers said. On average, individuals are subjected to about 0.6 rems per year. Nuclear power plant workers are typically limited to about 5 rems per year. According the 1982 book, Nuclear Power: Both Sides by Michio Kaku, 1,000 rems would kill a person a few days after exposure, 500 rems would kill half of the exposed population within a few weeks, 200-400 rems would cause radiation sickness and hemorrhaging, and 50 rems would cause no immediate visible effects, but could induce long-term damage.
TEPCO reports that they're continuing to inject sea water into Unit 1, along with boric acid to soak up the neutron emissions that release the heat that is causing the pressure to rise - and raising the risk of further explosions and breach of containment. As for the other reactors:
*Unit 2
At 1:25 pm, March 14th, since the Reactor Core Isolation Cooling System has failed, it was determined that a specific incident stipulated in article 15, clause 1 occurred (failure of reactor cooling function). At 5:17 pm, while the water level in the reactor reached the top of the fuel rod, we have restarted the water injection with the valve operation. At approximately 6:14 am, March 15th, the extraordinary sound was confirmed near the suppression chamber and the pressure inside the chamber decreased afterwards. It was determined that there is a possibility that something extraordinary happened in the suppression chamber. While sea water injection to the reactor continued, TEPCO employees and workers from other companies not in charge of injection work started tentative evacuation to a safe location. Sea water injection to the reactor is still under operation.
*Unit 3
At 6:50 am, March 14th, while water injection to the reactor was under operation, the pressure in the reactor containment vessel increased to 530 kPa. As a result, at 7:44 am, it was determined that a specific incident stipulated in article 15, clause 1 occurred (abnormal increase of the pressure of reactor containment vessel). Afterwards, the pressure has gradually decreased (as of 9:05 am, 450 kPa).
At approximately 11:01 am, March 14th, an explosion followed by white smoke occurred near Unit 3. 4 TEPCO employees and 3 workers from other companies (all of them are conscious) have sustained injuries and they were already dispatched to the hospital by ambulances.
*Unit 4
At approximately 6:00 am, March 15th, an explosive sound occurred and the damage in the 5th floor roof of Unit 4 reactor building was confirmed. At 9:38 am, the fire near the north-west part of 4th floor of Unit 4 reactor building was confirmed. At approximately 11:00 am, TEPCO employee confirmed that the fire was off.
Due to the ongoing concerns about the radiation risks and ongoing seismic hazards, the US is warning against travel to Japan. Other countries, including Canada, are issuing similar warnings.
Meanwhile, damage estimates are being tallied for Hawaii and parts of California and Oregon where the tsunami came ashore. In Hawaii alone, damage is estimated at $300 million.
“In an earthquake, if it’s within 72 hours and we reach them, they’re likely to be found alive; and in an earthquake, you find them in place and evacuate them,” said Kazutaka Hiramatsu, 48, a Tokyo firefighters’ school official who was helping direct the Shishiori search.
“But because the tsunami carries everything so far away, it’s very difficult to find people. And because it’s a tsunami, when we find them, they are usually already dead.”
Because most victims are neither in their homes nor able to call for help, the search-and-rescue teams that attend most natural disasters are less useful. In this case, the first victims are found and zipped into body bags by the workers sent in to clear paths through the debris fields that the tsunami has left behind.
“The problem,” Mr. Sato said, “is that there’s a lot of water, and a lot of the debris is just too big to move. So our search has become search-and-removal — we have to do it all together.”
Sometimes other homeowners, coming back to pick through the rubble of their belongings, discover the dead. In Kesen-cho, a village in another tsunami-flattened coastal area eight miles northeast of Kesennuma, journalists on Tuesday encountered two victims by a plowed roadside, laid on planks and carefully covered with a beige duvet and a Mickey Mouse bedspread. Bodies also have been recovered at sea by the Japan’s Coast Guard and the United States Navy, which have mounted helicopter searches from ships offshore.
That leaves the most difficult and painstaking work to the squads of searchers from Japan’s military, the Self-Defense Force, and emergency bodies like the Tokyo Fire and Disaster Management Agency.
Here in Kesennuma, about 800 searchers are deployed in all, outfitted in mud boots and slickers and carrying the tools of their trade. “We use bars, axes, and breaking tools that look like spurs to lift and turn over debris,” said Keiichiro Horiguchi, one of the Tokyo agency’s searchers. “We break walls and windows, and use metal cutting tools to turn over the tiles that cover the roofs to see if there is anybody beneath.”
UPDATE:
The US Navy is continuing to provide search, rescue, and relief assistance. Ships, including the USS Ronald Reagan and USS Essex are involved in the efforts. Via Twitter, the Essex ARG w/ @31stMEU are in the Sea of Japan and are positioning themselves off Sakata to conduct disaster relief operations.
Perhaps, more importantly, the USNS Safeguard has offloaded high-pressure water pumps in Yokosuka for transfer to the Japanese government to be used in getting the situation at Fukushima under control.
Those high pressure water pumps are going to be critical to getting water on the damaged reactors to keep an already dangerous situation from getting even worse.
UPDATE: US officials are extremely concerned and alarmed at the way Japanese officials are handling the crisis at Fukushima - and believe that the spent fuel pool at reactor 4 may be dry - exposing the cores to air - and releasing tremendous amounts of radiation to the point that it can be impossible to approach without being a suicide mission.
"We are all-out urging the Japanese to get more people back in there to do emergency operation there, that the next 24 to 48 hours are critical," the official said. "Urgent efforts are needed on the part of the Japanese to restore emergency operations to cool" down the reactors' rods before they trigger a meltdown.
"They need to stop pulling out people—and step up with getting them back in the reactor to cool it. There is a recognition this is a suicide mission," the official said.
The official said the United States is in very deep consultations with Japanese about the way forward and that the only thing that has been favorable is the wind pattern that is blowing the contaminated material out to sea instead south towards Tokyo and other populated areas, but that can't be counted upon.
The U.S. official says experts believe there is a rupture in two, maybe three of the six reactors at the Fukushima power plant, but as worrisome is the fact that spent fuel rods are now exposed to the air, which means that substances like cesium, which have a long half-life, could become airborne.
"That could be deadly for decades," the official said.
There is a growing concern around the world that a nuclear catastrophic disaster is in the works.
"There is talk of an apocalypse and I think the word is particularly well chosen," European Union's energy commissioner Günther Oettinger said today, according to various reports. "Practically everything is out of control. I cannot exclude the worst in the hours and days to come."
I'm thinking that no one really knows the true extent of the damage and everyone's resorting to suppositions based on what information they do know (and however outdated that information may be - a pronouncement based on outdated information may lead to a vastly different conclusion than more current information).
At least six protesters were killed when Bahraini security cleared out the main square where protesters had encamped demanding political and social reforms. The Bahraini security was backed by the Saudis, who are trying to keep the situation in Bahrain from spiraling out of control and spilling over into their own country, but the situation is just as likely to backfire leaving the Bahrainis and Saudis disaffected and demanding change. Moreover, it potentially puts the US in an awkward position since it has had close relations with both the Saudi and Bahraini regimes.
Ahmadinejad's action's aren't surprising though. He's trying to exploit the sectarian differences between the protesters in Bahrain, who are largely Shi'ite, and the Sunni ruling regime - a 1,000+ year schism that still causes violence to this day.
Uncertainty and a worsening security situation in Bahrain is leading some governments to warn its citizens to stay away or to leave the country, including the Philippines.
This photo was taken earlier this afternoon. It shows a team of workers repairing one of the two tower cranes on the northeastern side of Ground Zero more than 75 feet in the air. The Freedom Tower is in the background.
As with many other natural disasters, the US Navy is leading the way - sending a carrier task force to assist with the logistical and relief efforts. But they are hardly alone.
Japan has received offers of assistance from 14 international organizations and 102 countries (including a number of unexpected aid donors such as embattled Afghanistan and poverty-stricken Cambodia), according to the latest report from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
The Salvation Army and the American Red Cross are among the groups accepting $10 donations via text message.
To donate to the Salvation Army, which has had a presence in Japan since 1895, text "Japan" or "Quake" to 80888.
Text "RedCross" to 90999 to donate to its fund set up in response to the disaster. The American Red Cross is coordinating with its Japanese counterpart, which is leading the organization's efforts in the disaster area.
Still a relatively new way to accept donations, texting took off last year after the earthquake in Haiti. The Red Cross said more than 3 million contributors used text messages to donate $32 million to relief efforts following the Port-Au-Prince quake.
For those who want to offer donations directly to charitable organizations directly, here are a few notable links (and far from inclusive - if you have others, leave them in the comments). Note too that some charities have not set up a separate donation path for the Japanese disaster:
Christian Aid and Oxfam have not set up separate appeals for Japan, but you can donate to their general emergency funds.
InterAction, an alliance of US-based international NGOs, has published a list of its members that are collecting money for the relief efforts. You can pledge money directly to the 22 organisations mentioned, which include Relief International, World Vision and Habitat for Humanity.
Online coupon site Groupon has set up a page to allow visitors to donate $5, $10 or $25 to support efforts of the International Medical Corps in Japan. According to the site, the coupon for donations won't expire until 16 June.
PayPal has set up an online store to take donations for Save the Children, GlobalGiving, HandsOn Network and the American Red Cross. It will pay all contributing costs.
I've donated to the American Red Cross in the past, but have donated to Doctors Without Borders (Medecins Sans Frontiers) in response to recent overseas natural disasters because the group has low overhead and directs 85% of the donations to actual services - but MSF has not set up a separate donation path for the tsunami relief as yet.
Also, if you are working for a company that does a charitable donation match, be sure to take advantage of those opportunities to maximize your charitable giving. Keep your receipts as well since not only can you bring some relief to those in need, but you might be able to take advantage of your donations during the 2011 tax year filing (returns due April 2012).
A statement by the military said naval commandos met no resistance while boarding the Victoria during a routine inspection 200 miles offshore. Brig. Gen. Avi Benayahu, a military spokesman, told Israel Radio at least three crates of weapons had been found and that hundreds of other crates would be inspected after the vessel is escorted into the Israeli port of Ashdod.
The freighter had sailed from the Syrian port of Latakia and stopped in Mersin, Turkey, before heading toward Alexandria in Egypt, the military said. Turkey has no involvement in the arms shipment, it added.
Militants in Gaza, a coastal enclave ruled by the Islamist group Hamas, use a network of tunnels to smuggle weapons from Egypt. Israeli officials say weapons smuggling from Egypt has increased since late January, when a popular uprising against the then-President Hosni Mubarak prompted the government there to withdraw some police forces away from the Gaza border.
Israel maintains a land and naval blockade of Gaza to isolate Hamas, which is hostile to Israel and backed by Syria. Gen. Benayahu said Israel suspected Syria of being behind the arms shipment.
The port from which the Victoria departed had been previously visited by two Iranian warships that had gone through the Suez Canal, so it is possible that these weapons were transported aboard those warships in an effort to circumvent the Israeli blockade of Gaza.
The ultimate destination of the weapons was Gaza and the cache of weapons was hidden among food supplies. Nothing like having your recommended daily allowance of fiber along with HE 60mm mortar rounds.
UPDATE:
A photo of the weapons cache:
UPDATE:
Those mortar shells were just the tip of the iceberg. Israeli officials announced that they not only recovered mortars and small arms, but a total of 50 tons of weapons including anti-ship missiles. They also came with instructions in Farsi and had links to Iran.
According to the Navy, soldiers who searched the ship found numerous 60 and 120-millimeter mortar shells, as well as two to four Chinese-made C-704 anti-ship missiles with a 35-kilometer range. Had they reached Gaza, the missiles would have threatened Israeli sea-based strategic installations and navy vessels, Ben-Yehuda said.
Godfrey represented an insurance company that happened to be Japan's largest foreign insurer. Those inappropriate comments harmed the AFLAC brand and the company was well within its rights to dump him.
The death toll continues rising in Japan and is all but likely to grow over 10,000 (current official death toll is about 2,500 and 15,000 are unaccounted for) while the economic toll is likely to be over $100 billion (and the Japanese markets are taking a beating).
The situation at the Japanese nuclear reactors at Fukushima remains uncertain but is worsening (now rating a 6 out of 7 on the nuclear emergency scale) and the TEPCO and Japanese government is dealing with multiple emergencies at the facility - reactors that have lost coolant, a fire at storage pool facility for spent fuel rods, and explosions at the buildings housing reactors and their containment vessels.
The fire at the storage pool appears to be the most serious situation - and it is the one that has released significant amounts of radiation. There are concerns that the pool might be boiling and temperature control was lost. That's only the latest in a series of problems resulting from the 9.0 quake and subsequent tsunamis that destroyed backup systems, causing multiple failures, and power troubles for the country.
Radiation levels have risen and levels triggered alarms on the USS George Washington, which was in Yokohama. The US carriers USS George Washington and USS Ronald Reagan (which is currently conducting relief operations off the coast of Japan) are equipped to deal with nuclear emergencies - they are nuclear powered after all, and they've got nuclear engineers and experts on board to deal with potential radiation problems.
The rest of the Japanese people? Not so much, and the radiation exposures are extremely troublesome - and the problems seem to be overwhelming TEPCO and the government's ability to deal with them. So, while levels have dropped back down for the moment, the government is calling on Japanese to remain indoors to minimize potential exposures.
There are too many problems happening at once - dividing attention of those who need to get the situation under control. And just when you think one situation is calming down, a problem at the reactor next door takes your breath away - leaks, explosions, fires, etc.
Yet, even before all the facts are in, Germany is shutting down all its pre-1980 reactors, in what appears to be a political decision as the Germans don't exactly have a way to make up the generating capacity lost by shuttering those reactors.
What is clear is that backup systems will need to be reevaluated - how to deal with emergency situations such as now facing the Japanese. The backup coolant systems in place rely on pumps, but newer backup systems rely on gravity so that a loss of power would not disable the coolant systems. The situation may also lead to a reevaluation of how multiple reactors are sited at a given plant - such that a problem at one plant could lead to cascading failures at adjacent facilities particularly during a nuclear emergency - or that siting multiple reactors at a quake/tsunami prone area should not be done in the future because it could lead to too many power plants being thrown offline in a disaster event - disrupting the power grid.
UPDATE:
Japan has requested assistance from the IAEA.
The 1979 accident at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania rates five on an international scale of zero to seven, while Chernobyl is put at seven, the highest.
Level 3 indicates a "serious incident" according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) scale, while level four means there has been an "accident with local consequences". Level 6 is a "serious accident".
The 1986 explosion at the Soviet nuclear power plant in Chernobyl - rated a maximum 7 - was the world's worst nuclear disaster, with death toll estimates ranging from 4,000 to tens or even hundreds of thousands.
Mr Lacoste also said the concrete vessel around reactor No.2 at the plant, designed to contain radioactive debris, was "no longer sealed".
The confinement vessel, made out of reinforced concrete, surrounds the steel vessel that houses the nuclear reactor. It is designed to contain radioactive gas or dust, preventing them from being expelled into the air.
The agency said two "successive explosions, at 6:10am and 10:00am local time probably caused damage to the confinement vessel which is the source of the significant increase in detected radioactive releases".
If the containment vessel at Reactor 2 is no longer sealed, radiation will continue escaping until such time that the Japanese can figure out how to seal the reactor. That means likely encasing it in concrete much as the Soviets did with a sarcophagus around the ruined Chernobyl reactor and using sea water and boric acid to stop the nuclear chain reactions that give off tremendous heat even when the reactors are shut down; it was the failure of backup coolant systems that precipitated the failures and subsequent leaks and explosions. In the meantime, they have to deal with ongoing emergencies at adjacent reactors.
UPDATE:
Updating status on the Fukushima reactors (as of about about 1PM ET):
Fukushima Daiichi Plant
Reactor No. 1: Cooling failure, partial melting of core, vapor vented, hydrogen explosion, seawater pumped in.
Reactor No. 4: Under maintenance when quake struck, fire caused possibly by hydrogen explosion at pool holding spent fuel rods, pool water level feared receding.
Reactor No. 5: Under maintenance when quake struck, temperature slightly rising at spent fuel pool.
Reactor No. 6: Under maintenance when quake struck, temperature slightly rising at spent fuel pool.
Fukushima Daiini Plant
Reactor No. 1: Cooling failure, then cold shutdown.
Reactor No. 2: Cooling failure, then cold shutdown.
Reactor No. 3: Cold shutdown.
Reactor No. 4: Cooling failure, then cold shutdown.
Kyodo also reports that about two-thirds of Toshiba's 350 nuclear engineers, "are currently dealing with accidents at the Fukushima nuclear power plant."
Toshiba supplied much of the equipment for the reactors at the Fukushima No. 1, or Daiichi plant, Kyodo explains.
Protests in Bahrain continue, and security forces used tear gas and rubber bullets against the protesters. One such incident was caught on video and shows a member of security firing a tear gas canister at point blank range at a protester - who is lucky that he wasn't killed outright.
Saudi troops who crossed into Bahrain were heading in the direction of Riffa, a Sunni Muslim area that is home to the royal family and a military hospital, witnesses said.
They saw 150 armoured troop carriers, and about 50 other vehicles including ambulances, water tankers, buses and jeeps. The vehicles were lightly armed and there were no tanks or missile launchers in the procession.
As with the protests seen elsewhere in the Middle East, the protesters are demanding more political representation, more rights, and economic and religious freedoms (particularly among the Shi'ite minority). The Saudis were part of a Gulf Cooperation Council Force that includes Bahrain and its Gulf neighbors Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Oman.
Protesters who have been calling for democratic reforms have successfully shut down large swaths of Manama, the capital city, and Bahraini security forces have fought back with teargas and rubber bullets. Pro-government civilians have in some cases attacked protesters with sticks, knives and swords; the protesters have responded with rocks and other objects, witnesses have said.
Witnesses in Manama said that most downtown businesses were closed Monday.
Authorities in Saudi Arabia, which is connected to Bahrain by a causeway, have looked at its smaller neighbor with growing nervousness, fearful that a victorious Shia majority in Bahrain could embolden Saudi Arabia's own Shiite minority in nearby oil-rich Eastern Province. They are also worried about Iran exploiting the situation off their coast, although American officials have said that they do not believe Iran has been involved in the Bahrain protests.
A pro-government political society in Bahrain called Sunday for martial law to be imposed, the state news agency reported, while the White House issued a statement condemning the use of force.
On Saturday, Defense Secretary Robert Gates met with Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa Al-Khalifa and pushed him to take stronger steps toward democratic reforms.
The Saudis are keenly aware that they need to quell protests should opposition groups within Saudi Arabia generate sufficient support to overwhelm the Saudi security forces. Last week's failed Friday demonstrations showed that the Saudis have effectively tamped down the possibility of demonstrations for the moment, but that could change if the opposition efforts in Bahrain are successful in wringing out concessions above and beyond that which the Bahraini regime has agreed to.
Japan continues to be rocked by aftershocks and scientists are warning of the potential for an aftershock above magnitude 7 within the next week. Several hundred aftershocks have been recorded, and more than two dozen have been above magnitude 6.
With each strong aftershock, the potential for another tsunami exists, and rescue and relief efforts are trying to reach the hardest hit areas.
Entire towns were swept away, and the death toll is expected to rise sharply as estimates suggest the toll may exceed 10,000. Currently the official toll is 2,800 and bodies are being cremated where possible, but local officials are overwhelmed by the numbers.
The scenes of devastation harken back to the massive tsunami in South Asia in 2004, and that's despite Japan being among the most advanced technologically to deal with natural disasters. Even though towns had several minutes warning, the advancing wall of water was simply incredible and overwhelming.
Sea walls were clearly overtopped by the tsunami, but it does appear that they provided at least a momentary reprieve from the wall of water - giving precious minutes of time for people to attempt to flee.
As with most natural disasters, it is best to provide monetary donations to notable aid services, rather than trying to put together donations since the quality of materials donated (like clothing) may not be relevant - in the aftermath of the 2004 tsunami in South Asia, clothing donations included winter clothes that were not needed in a tropical weather climate.
Even Afghanistan's war torn city of Kandahar is donating $50,000 to assist the Japanese recovery (Japan has been a major contributor to redevelopment in Afghanistan).
Even the poor southern Afghan city of Kandahar announced it was donating $50,000 to the "brothers and sisters" of Japan.
"I know $50,000 is not a lot of money for a country like Japan, but it is a show of appreciation from the Kandahar people," Kandahar Mayor Ghulam Haidar Hamidi told Reuters.
Japan has pledged $5 billion in aid to Afghanistan over the next five years, more than one-third of the total $13 billion in foreign aid pledged to the country over the next five years.
Incitement is expressly forbidden under Olso, but Fatah and Hamas routinely ignore that.
Those are the terror groups that Israel is supposed to be negotiating peace with.
Building housing is not an impediment to peace - and it never has been. Housing can always be transferred, but when Israel lacks a partner, talk about negotiating and peace deals is a pipe dream.
Hamas militants in the West Bank have resumed their efforts to kill Israeli soldiers or civilians and abduct their bodies, Palestinian and Israeli security sources have told Haaretz.
The sources said Hamas activists believe they cannot keep Israeli hostages out of the Shin Bet and Palestinian Authority's reach for long. So they plan to kill them, abduct and bury the bodies, then negotiate returning them to Israel.
Hamas headquarters in Damascus and Gaza are pressuring organization cells in the West Bank to kill Israelis and abduct their bodies, in view of the effect Gilad Shalit's abduction has had on Israeli public opinion. Another reason for the pressure is the failure of Shalit's abduction to bring the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, the sources told Haaretz.
The only way that Fatah has remained in power in the West Bank is because Israel has propped them up against Hamas - the evil of the lesser of two evils.
So, what can you take away from Hamas' contradictory statements? They are itching for a fight with Israel, but aren't ready to do so on their terms. They know that the murder of this Israeli family would be enough to get Israel to go after the terror group behind the attacks in a serious way - particularly because of the brutal and heinous way they butchered the family as they were asleep.
The ongoing crisis in Japan at several of the country's nuclear reactors is sure to fuel a renewed debate over the future of nuclear power as an alternative to fossil fuel and other alternative energy sources.
Concerns over a possible meltdown and containment failure hearkens back to crises at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl, both of which effectively ended the development of nuclear power in the United States.
Yet, there are lessons to be learned from the ongoing situation in Japan.
For starters, it took a massive 9.0 earthquake and the ensuing tsunamis and the failure of several backup systems to bring the Fukushima to the point of failure. The reactors at issue were first brought online in the early 1970s, and the technology has progressed significantly since then. Lessons learned from Fukushima will be incorporated into the development of nuclear reactors in Japan and elsewhere.
It appears that while the reactors survived the earthquake and its aftershocks intact, not as much attention was paid to the tsunami threat, which caused significant damage as seen by before/after photos here and a legacy of trying to achieve a perfect solution to a crisis rather than one that would be adequate to avert a crisis:
In the hours after the blast at Reactor No. 1, nuclear advocates argued that Daiichi’s problems were singular in many ways and stemmed from a natural disaster on a scale never before experienced in Japan. They pointed out that the excavation of fossil fuels has its own history of catastrophic accidents, including coal mine collapses and the recent BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.
Some also said there might have been missteps in handling Reactor No. 1. A quick alternative source of water for cooling the destabilizing core should have been immediately available, said Nils J. Diaz, a nuclear engineer who led the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission from 2003 to 2006 and had visited the Daiichi plant.
Mr. Diaz suggested that the Japanese might have acted too slowly to prevent overheating, including procedures that might have required the venting of small amounts of steam and radiation, rather than risk a wholesale meltdown. Fear among Japanese regulators over public reaction to such small releases may have delayed plant operators from acting as quickly as they might have, he said — a problem arising in part from the country’s larger nuclear regulatory culture.
“They would rather wait and do things in a perfect manner instead of doing it as good as it needs to be now,” Mr. Diaz said. “And this search for perfection has often led to people sometimes hiding things or waiting too long to do things.”
With virtually no natural resources, Japan has considered nuclear power as an alternative to oil and other fossil fuels since the 1960s. It has regarded its expertise in nuclear power as a way to cut down on its emission of greenhouse gases and to capture energy-hungry markets in Asia.
Japan is one of the world’s top consumers of nuclear energy. The country’s 17 nuclear plants — boasting 55 reactors — have provided about 30 percent of its electricity needs.
However, there should be significant concern over the reactors recently built or conceived in China, which is criss-crossed with numerous active faults. The Sichuan quake revealed that the Chinese authorities did not adhere to its own building code standards, and that substandard building techniques and materials led to countless deaths and injuries. Schools that should have been seismically resistant to the Sichuan quake collapsed killing all within.
A nuclear plant built with similar quality of construction would be a disaster waiting to happen and one can't rely on the Chinese government to give assurances that these structures were built to specification.
However, the Japanese building codes exceed anything seen in China or the United States. They are built to resist earthquakes but failures in the backup systems exposed a weak point in the technology and procedures that will have to be addressed.
UPDATE: Conflicting reports over whether another tsunami is imminent - no significant quakes are reported in the vicinity, but there are reports that a hydrogen explosion involved reactor 3, the other reactor at Fukushima that was of serious concern.
We're still dealing with ongoing flooding here in northern New Jersey as the Passaic River is in a major flood stage. Wayne, Paterson, Little Falls, and parts of Fair Lawn are submerged.
The river was expected to hit 11.9 feet in Little Falls around 1 a.m., almost 5 feet above flood stage. As a result, Paterson officials on Saturday closed the West Broadway, Temple Street, Arch Street and Haledon Avenue bridges that cross the river in the northwestern part of the city. The Passaic County Office of Emergency Management said the bridges were expected to remain closed for at least a portion of today.
The swollen, roiling river was expected to hit 11.9 feet in Little Falls around 1 a.m., almost 5 feet above flood stage. And predictions were that it would sustain high depths well into the week. Paterson officials said they do not expect floodwaters to fully recede for several days and said their next concern is how the flooding will affect storm sewers and the sanitary sewer system.
Chief among the Bergen communities hit by flooding Saturday was Fair Lawn, where Emergency Management Coordinator Wendy Demeraski said she expected the crest along her borough about dawn. Several residents on flooded roads had voluntarily evacuated, she said.
But in Hillsdale, where the Pascack Brook jumped its banks, and Lodi, where the Saddle River crept into several neighborhoods, crews were removing debris, washing down muddy streets and assessing the damages as the floodwaters receded. And municipalities that have historically seen bad floods, including New Milford, River Edge and Oradell along the Hackensack River, experienced minimal flooding.
Bridges have been swamped along the Passaic and major highways and access roads are flooded out - and the Great Falls in Paterson is roaring as the river continues above major flood stage for at least another couple of days.
The malls in Wayne have been turned into islands among a sea of flooding. The damage from the flooding is likely in the millions as homes and businesses have been engulfed in the rising flood waters.
Gov. Chris Christie had declared a state of emergency for Northern New Jersey earlier this week in anticipation of the flooding in the area, and the National Guard is providing assistance to local law enforcement in evacuating low lying areas and rerouting traffic away from the hardest hit areas.
Flooding has been a concern along the Passaic and Pompton Rivers for years, but there are no easy solutions. It's a function of geology and population density along the flood plain. Some homeowners have been bought out by the state and federal government to restore wetlands and the flood plain, but to do so along the entire Pompton and Passaic Rivers would run into the billions of dollars. The region simply gets more water than the watershed can handle during major rainfalls, particularly after snowpack melts.
UPDATE:
To give some sense of perspective over how much water is flowing over the Great Falls, I took these photos of the Great Falls back in 2009 when the river was flowing at a moderate level.
Japan faces a three-pronged disaster, with recovery and relief efforts focusing on searching for survivors and victims from the massive 9.0 earthquake (revised upwards from 8.9 by Japanese scientists) and ensuing tsunami, and warily eying the dire situation at several nuclear reactors in the hard stricken area.
Reports are indicating that perhaps 10,000 or more were killed in Miyagi prefecture alone, and that's on top of the 1,000 that are officially listed as killed from the tsunami and quake.
Video from Chiba, where the tsunami came roaring through:
Meanwhile, while much of the world has seen the flooding at Sendai's airport, video has emerged showing the tsunami striking from within one of the terminal buildings and the onlookers at first staring in wonderment and then quickly moving away from the windows and walls as the wall of water approaches:
At the same time, there continues to be mixed reports about the seriousness of the situation at several nuclear reactors. Some headlines are indicating that meltdowns are in progress, while others are noting that there hasn't been any breach of the reactor containment vessels nor a release of massive amounts of radiation. The explosion witnessed yesterday was the result of hydrogen gas exploding during the release of gas to bring down the pressure within the reactor. Japanese scientists are bringing down the temperature at the reactors in the Fukushima complex with sea water and boric acid, which tamps down the nuclear chain reactions.
MSNBC - headlines the term meltdown, but dig a little deeper, and the term isn't clearly defined.
A "meltdown" is not a technical term. Rather, it is an informal way of referring to a very serious collapse of a power plant's systems and its ability to manage temperatures. Yaroslov Shtrombakh, a Russian nuclear expert, said a Chernobyl-style meltdown was unlikely.
"It's not a fast reaction like at Chernobyl," he said. "I think that everything will be contained within the grounds, and there will be no big catastrophe."
In 1986, the Chernobyl nuclear reactor exploded and caught fire, sending a cloud of radiation over much of Europe. That reactor — unlike the Fukushima one — was not housed in a sealed container, so there was no way to contain the radiation once the reactor exploded.
Edwin Lyman, a senior scientist with the Union of Concerned Scientists, which opposes nuclear energy, told msnbc.com Friday that TEPCO was facing a potential catastrophe.
"What's critical is, are they able to restore cooling and prevent fuel damage? If the fuel starts to get damaged, eventually it will melt through the reactor vessel and drop to the floor of the containment building," raising the odds that highly radioactive materials could be released into the environment, he said.
msnbc.com
But Steve Kerekes, spokesman for the U.S.-based Nuclear Energy Institute, said that while the situation was serious, a meltdown remains unlikely and, even if it occurred would not necessarily pose a threat to public health and safety.
Scientists are trying to get a handle on the nuclear chain reactions to keep the pressure within the reactor from getting to supercritical levels causing an explosion and breach of the containment vessel in which the uranium cores sit. Moderator rods are present to soak up the energy but even a reactor that is shut down is still releasing tremendous amounts of energy - and requires coolant systems. It is those systems that failed, particularly the backup systems that should have kicked in when the quake struck.
UPDATE:
Here are before/after images of many of the areas hardest hit by the tsunami. Of particular note is one of the Fukushima nuclear power plant, which shows many of the secondary buildings wiped away by the tsunami. That could explain why the coolant systems failed.
UPDATE: Rethinking sea walls against tsunami is already underway - but it will take some time before the full effect of whether they saved lives in some areas and provided a false sense of security in others - particularly around the Fukushima reactor complex.
