Tuesday, November 02, 2010

2010 Election Day Predictions

Democrats have been on the ropes for months as promised relief from the ongoing recession hasn't translated into tangible results. Job creation, which is typically a lagging indicator, continues to show little improvement in the employment situation. U3 and U6 rates continue to be well above the rates originally forecast by the Obama Administration as being the high points following the passage of the stimulus package (ARRA of 2009).

People aren't in the mood to support the incumbents, and with Democrats holding more seats in the House and Senate, they're due to take a hit.

The only question is how big.

Pollsters and pundits have been seeing huge numbers turn to the Republicans or Tea Party candidates across the country. In some instances, it may be that they simply hate the Republican candidate less than the incumbent Democrat, but for whatever reason voters will give, the Democrats are going to find themselves the minority party in the House and may have to worry about control in the Senate.

The Republicans will likely gain more than 50 seats, and I figure that they'll pick up 68 seats in the House. That's more than enough to give them a strong majority in the House.

In the Senate, I figure that they'll pick up 7 seats, which isn't sufficient to give the Republicans control, but that's sufficient to cause gridlock and temper whatever legislation may result in the next two years.

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