Monday, November 02, 2009

Latest New Jersey Polls Bode Poorly For Corzine

A Quinnipiac Poll shows Christie ahead by two points, which is just inside the margin of error of +/- 2.5 points, while the final Public Policy Polling poll for New Jersey's governor's race shows Republican Chris Christie leading incumbent Democrat by six points just a day to go in the heavily contested race.
Christie’s six point lead is an increase from four points a week ago and a single point three weeks ago. He’s buoyed by a 52-29 lead with independents, as well as the fact that his party is more unified around him than the Democrats are around Corzine. 82% of Republicans say they will vote for Christie while just 72% of Democrats say the same for the incumbent.

If Christie does indeed end up as the winner it will be an indication that you can only be so unpopular as an elected official and still hope to get reelected. 57% of voters in the state have an unfavorable opinion of Corzine while only 34% view him positively.

Christie isn’t exactly Mr. Popularity, as only 43% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him to 42% negative, but compared to Corzine those numbers look pretty good.

Interestingly even though the poll’s respondents favored Christie 46% of them still think that Corzine will be the eventual winner to 40% picking the Republican.
It's well outside margin of error, and that's even with Pres. Obama campaigning so heavily inside NJ that you have to wonder who's running for Governor; Corzine or Obama.

Yet crosstabs still show that people think that Corzine will pull this out. That shows the level of distrust about the political process in New Jersey and the fact that Corzine has seriously outspent Christie nearly 3-1 and with President Obama in New Jersey on three separate occasions at four different locations to rally support for Corzine.

Corzine clearly hopes that some of Obama's lingering good will in New Jersey will carry Corzine to victory. The problem is that Corzine's negatives outweigh any positive benefits that Obama can inure to Corzine's campaign. Corzine can't exactly showcase all the positives he's accomplished in the state without highlighting the failure to reign in property taxes and the failed promises of his property tax rebate program, which has resulted in higher taxes for everyone across the board with minimal effect on rising property taxes.

Jobs are another huge concern, and a report today indicates that New Jersey might not see a job recovery to 2007 levels until a decade from now.

Voting for Corzine would result in rewarding failure, and yet all too many regional newspapers have endorsed Corzine despite his all too numerous failings, which speaks to the problems with the editorial boards of those papers as much as it does about Corzine's incompetence.

At the same time, there are reports of a robocall involving Chris Daggett that may be linked to the Democratic party trying to lure Republican voters away from Christie to Daggett, which would advantage Corzine. Dirty tricks in a New Jersey race?

President Obama says that Gov. Corzine is key to Obama's plans. If that's the case, one has to wonder about Obama's goals, particularly if Corzine goes down to defeat.

That Obama came out with that kind of statement shows that this race, and not NY-23 would be pivotal for GOP chances nationwide going into 2010. If a close ally to Obama goes down to defeat at GOP hands in New Jersey, chances for other moderate GOPers, particularly in the Northeast improve and Democrat control in the House could take a serious hit.

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