Tokyo and Chicago are out. That leaves Rio and Madrid. I think the odds favor Rio, primarily because Europe is already hosting the 2012 Games in London. The IOC tends to spread out the Games geographically, and it would be the first time a South American country hosted the Games.
Apparently all the last minute efforts by the Obamas went for naught. It just wasn't in the cards.
UPDATE:
The Chicago Sun Times calls the outcome shocking. Really? Was Chicago really the frontrunner for the Olympic bid? I didn't really think it was. I always thought that Rio had the inside edge on this one.
Some reports suggest that President Obama only came to lobby the IOC after other national leaders did the same to bolster their own national efforts. Boosterism couldn't hurt, but it didn't help Obama land Chicago the 2016 games.
The US efforts to land Olympic games is coming up against stronger bids elsewhere; the NYC 2012 bid failed when the West Side Stadium deal collapsed a month before selection, thrashing any chances. Maybe that's why the Obamas couldn't seal the deal; they didn't have the strongest bid no matter how much support they could throw their way.
And that's the fault of no one but the Chicago 2016 committee.
UPDATE:
Rio wins in the third round of balloting.
UPDATE:
Apparently for some it was a foregone conclusion that Chicago would win that we have stunned disbelief from the CNN reporters covering the announcement:
That's not covering the news. That's cheerleading, and realizing that your team lost.
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