Swine Flu 2009 Watch

The Centers for Disease Control, which is led by former New York City Health Commissioner Thomas Frieden, is set to release a study noting that 10% of New York City suffered from swine flu this past year (800,000 people out of a population of 8 million), and that 47 people died as a result of complications from swine flu (H1N1).

"In New York City, where we had a lot of H1N1 this last spring, the estimate is about 800,000 people - about 10% of New York City residents - got infected with the flu," said Thomas Frieden, head of the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and former New York City's health commissioner.

"That's a lot of people," he said.

Swine flu killed 47 New Yorkers in the spring - less than 1% of those infected.

A report released last week suggested half the country could get sick with swine flu this fall and 90,000 could die.

The actual fatality rate from the swine flu in New York City appeared to be .0005875 (47/800,000). That's a fraction of a fraction of 1%. The 90,000 figure that is being touted is likely a worst case model, figuring that the death rate is much closer to 1% than to the rate seen in New York City this past year. If the rate is unchanged from this year, 1,762 people might be expected to die as a result from swine flu, which is still a percentage of the overall number of people who die annually from the flu - which normally ranges around 40,000 annually.

The warnings are needed because this particular strain appears to be far more virulent than other strains seen recently, and the flu season lasted longer that several prior seasons, which could foreshadow a far more virulent 2009 flu season.

The concern is that this virulent form could mutate into a much more deadly form. That's why the need to be vigilant is an absolute must. Early detection and precautions are needed so that if there is an outbreak, health officials can be ready to provide guidance and assistance.