Swine Flu Outbreak Update

Since cases of swine flu broke out in the NYC metro region, much has been written about swine flu and the deadly consequences. So, it is somewhat reassuring that 127 people have been confirmed to have died of the disease in the US along with 27,000+ confirmed cases.

US health officials estimate that at least one million Americans have been infected with swine flu since the H1N1 virus emerged nearly three months ago.

The number is far higher than cases actually reported to the authorities.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said many cases were mild, although 127 people had died.

The CDC based its figures on surveys, rather than laboratory evidence, but the numbers suggest the death rate from swine flu is lower than thought.

"We're saying that there have been at least a million cases of the new H1N1 virus so far this year in the United States," said Anne Schuchat of the CDC.

"Reported cases are really just the tip of the iceberg."

The CDC has based its estimate on mathematical modelling, based on surveys by health officials.

If the figures are correct, it is reassuring news, because it indicates that the fatality rate from swine flu is even lower than thought, says BBC medical correspondent Fergus Walsh.

However, Dr Schuchat warned that swine flu might exhibit higher infection rates than seasonal flu and could return in a more virulent form in the autumn.

However, based on computer models, the true number of people who were infected and got sick from the H1N1 virus was likely above 1 million. That means that the mortality rate for this strain is far less than previously thought.

Recall that in any given year, anywhere from 5-25% of the US population becomes ill from the flu, and 25-40,000 people die of the flu.

The concern is that this strain will give way to a more virulent form that is more dangerous and deadly. Health officials have to remain vigilant to see if there are additional outbreaks.

That means constantly scouring medical reports from hospitals and medical officials worldwide for unusual presentations of influenza, but tracking to see whether there are late outbreaks of H1N1 or other influenzas that might signal that the disease is hanging around into the next flu season.