Swine Flu Disconnect

The media continues churning out stories about swine flu and the hype appears to be outpacing what we know about the disease, let alone just how dangerous it is. You're still more likely to die of the regular flu than you are of the swine flu (36,000 fatalities in the US annually vs 81 in Mexico among 1,000+ reported cases). It seems every local station and news outlet in New York City has some expert on warning about just how dangerous swine flu might be and the precautions that one should take.

The precautions are all sensible, but one has to wonder why people don't take flu shots more seriously. The regular run of the mill flu hits millions of people annually (5-20% of the nation, depending on the severity of the season) and it kills roughly 36,000 people in the US every year. You'd think that those kinds of numbers would get people to take flu shots more seriously, but it hasn't.

Maybe the swine flu, which sounds pretty bad, will get people to take flu vaccination more seriously, but I doubt it.

What the swine flu outbreak has done is show that the US still needs to work on its national handling of such outbreaks. The Obama Administration still lacks a Health and Human Services Secretary along with several key posts at HHS. The Administration says that those empty posts aren't getting in the way of the response, but US health officials were in the dark about what was happening in Mexico for two weeks.

The delayed communication occurred as epidemiologists in Southern California were investigating milder cases of the illness that turned out to be caused by the same strain of swine flu as the one in Mexico.

In the wake of the 2001 terrorist attacks, the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003 and the more recent emergence of H5N1 bird flu in Asia, national and local health authorities have done extensive planning for disease outbreaks that could lead to global epidemics, or pandemics. Open and frequent communication between countries and agencies has been a hallmark of that work.

Whether delayed communication among the countries has had a practical consequence is unknown. However, it seems that U.S. public health officials are still largely in the dark about what's happening in Mexico two weeks after the outbreak was recognized.

Asked at a news conference yesterday whether the number of swine flu cases found daily in Mexico is increasing -- a key determinant in understanding whether an epidemic is spreading -- Anne Schuchat, an interim deputy director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said, "I do not know the answer to those questions."

As of yesterday, U.S. officials had reported 11 domestic cases, none fatal. Last night, Mexican health officials reported more than 1,300 suspected cases and 81 deaths "probably linked to the virus."

We're learning that the first fatality in Mexico was a 39-year-old woman who died April 12 of severe viral pneumonia in San Luis Potosi, which is located in central Mexico. Epidemiologists then uncovered additional cases, including several fatalities, that involved unusual respiratory ailments.

UPDATE:
Europe has now issued warnings for travel to the US based on the swine flu outbreak and to postpone unnecessary travel to the US. The CDC says that the move was unwarranted.

Meanwhile, the US stock markets are dropping on concerns relating to the swine flu. Not surprisingly, drug stocks are up.

UPDATE:
The number of cases of swine flu in NYC has increased to 28, as a result of more cases diagnosed at St. Francis Prep School, where many students went to Cancun on spring break.

UPDATE:
Meanwhile, the suspected death toll in Mexico is now 149. Mexican officials have closed schools through May 6, which should help reduce the spread of the flu through direct contact in public places.

He says 1,995 have been hospitalized with serious cases of pneumonia since the first case of swine flu was reported on April 13. The government does not yet know how many were swine flu. Of those hospitalized, 1,070 have already been released.
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Cordova says school at all levels nationwide are suspended until May 6. Schools had already been suspended in Mexico City and five of Mexico's 32 states.

The school closer is part of the government's effort to stem the spread of a deadly strain of swine flu. Earlier Monday, the work week began with pleas to stay home if they have any symptoms of the virus believed to have sickened nearly 2,000.

Officials already canceled hundreds of public events. But as the number of suspected cases and deaths rose again — and millions returning to work — they looked to other measures to control the outbreak.

Labor Secretary Javier Lozano Alarcon said employers should isolate anyone showing up for work with fever, cough, sore throat or other signs of the flu.