Swine Flu Cases Swell

New York City likely has hundreds of cases that have gone uncounted so far, according to NYC Health Commissioner Thomas Frieden. Several of those cases are at a public school not far from St. Francis Prep, which was closed to disinfect the facility after several dozen students came down with the illness after going on spring break in Cancun, Mexico.

Los Angeles suspects that swine flu may be responsible for two deaths there.

Seven countries are now confirmed as having swine flu.

Twenty fatalities have been confirmed in Mexico, and the number of deaths considered likely to have been caused by the flu rose to 152, up from 149 on Monday, according to Mexico’s health minister. The number of people believed to be infected surpassed 1,600.

In the United States, the number of infections stood at 50. Preliminary tests by health officials in New Jersey had identified five “probable” cases — four people who were recently in Mexico and one who had been in California, The Associated Press reported.

Other cases have been reported in Ohio, Kansas, Texas and California. Most of the cases were concentrated in New York, at a high school in Queens where a group of students had recently traveled to Mexico. At least 28 students at the school tested positive, and another 17 were suspected of having the flu, with testing under way. Investigators were also examining between 10 and 15 possible new cases in three counties in upstate New York, all involving people who had recently traveled to Mexico or the southwest United States.

“All of our cases continue to be mild, with spontaneous recovery,” said Richard F. Daines, the New York state health commissioner.In Mexico, state health authorities looking for the initial source of the outbreak toured a million-pig hog farm in Perote, in Veracruz State. The plant is half-owned by Smithfield Foods, an American company and the world’s largest pork producer.

Mexico’s first known swine flu case, which was later confirmed, was from Perote, according to Health Minister José Ángel Córdova. The case involved a 5-year-old boy who recovered.

The part in bold is important to keep in mind. While this is a public health emergency, it's important to keep perspective over the illness and that most of those who are getting sick at present are recovering on their own. The situation becomes far more problematic if the mortality rate increases or the number of cases swells exponentially.

Businesses are being affected all over the place, although the effects are nowhere near as bad as during the 1918 outbreak. Thus far, the worst hit areas economically are the businesses in and around Mexico, and the tourist industry is taking a hit as well. Carnival Cruises has canceled all Mexico port of calls until further notice.

Meanwhile, President Obama has called for another $1.5 billion to spend on swine flu prevention. Slate points out that Mexico's response isn't exactly impressive and the slow response may have allowed additional people to be exposed to the disease.

New influenza cases started appearing in Mexico City on March 18. The first death occurred April 12. But the government dragged its feet, hoping that this was an isolated case. As deaths mounted over the following days, the Calderón administration refused to take decisive action.

It wasn't until half a dozen cases were discovered in the United States that the Mexican authorities sent mucus samples to Canadian and U.S. laboratories for testing. The lab results immediately sent alarm throughout Mexico and the world. But almost a month had been lost.

A more fundamental cause of the late response is the terrible state of Mexico's public health system. Due to years of neglect by the government, the poorest patients normally need to wait for hours or even days to see a doctor. Medicines are scarce. The largest network of public hospitals recently won an "award" as the government agency with the most useless red tape.

A large percentage of the poorest Mexicans therefore do not even bother to go to the doctor when they feel sick. It is more effective to self-prescribe antibiotics or anti-virals, which are easily available over the counter at pharmacies. This leads to serious problems with early detection of new diseases. To make matters worse, Mexican labs do not have the profiling data needed to detect many new viruses.

These kinds of situations bring out the worst in politicians, and this is quite the doozy from Rep. Michelle Bachmann (R-MN), who doesn't quite get the science behind influenza or know her history well.

That's okay, because the stupidity is bipartisan.