Get Ready For New Israeli Elections?

Unless the Israeli religious party Shas cooperates with Kadima, Israel is going to need new elections because Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni isn't able to cobble together a coalition government.

Israel's ultra-Orthodox Shas party refused to join a coalition government Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni is seeking to assemble, increasing the chance of a general election in early 2009.

``It has been decided not to join the government,'' Roi Lachmanovich, a spokesman for Shas leader Eli Yishai, said in a telephone interview today. ``The decision is final.''

The rebuff came after Livni late yesterday said she'll announce on Oct. 26 whether she expects to form a government and take over as prime minister or ask President Shimon Peres to call early elections. Shas's 12 seats in the 120-person parliament could give her the support she needs for a majority.

Shas's refusal may be an effort to squeeze better terms out of Livni, said Gideon Doron, a political-science professor at Tel Aviv University. ``This could be the beginning of serious negotiations,'' he said. The deadline is Nov. 3 before Peres calls elections or assigns another party leader to assemble a coalition.

Livni's Kadima Party has failed to meet the two main Shas demands, said Lachmanovich. These are an increase in welfare payments for children and a commitment not to negotiate with the Palestinians over Jerusalem.

Israel operates with a parliamentary system; 120 seats are divided among the political parties in an election. It takes a majority to form a government and no political party in the nation's history has been able to govern without a coalition. This means that the leading political party has to cobble together a coalition from many disparate elements. Several times the nation's two biggest parties have formed a coalition government rather than hold new elections, but this time, it looks like Kadima isn't going to pull a rabbit out of its hat although Livni may try to pull in other parties to make up the number necessary.

Kadima, founded by Ariel Sharon, was run into the ground by Ehud Olmert, who was forced to resign in disgrace because of his ongoing corruption investigations. Livni won party elections putting her at the top of the ticket (each party votes for a slate of people who will get seated in the Knesset depending on the outcome of general elections).

New elections would also mean the death knell of the current efforts to concede much of the West Bank and Jerusalem to the Palestinians with nothing in return except a promise not to attack. Palestinian flacks will claim righteous indignation over how the Israelis are undermining the peace process, even as their fellow Palestinians continue plotting and carrying out attacks against Israelis.