Light at the End of the Tunnel For Zimbabwe?

This certainly seems promising. It also marks a complete turnaround for South Africa, who had spent months shielding Robert Mugabe thuggish behavior from worldwide condemnation and action to oust him after Mugabe stole elections from the opposition led by Morgan Tsvangirai.

Mugabe must give up power within 18 months or face arrest and criminal prosecution for a wide array of crimes against the Zimbabwean people. It would appear that the key moment was not that Mugabe realized that the end was near, but that the screws were turned on South Africa and their leader, Mbeki, who ran interference for Mugabe along with China and Russia.

But The Sunday Times has learnt that Mugabe, who has vowed that Tsvangirai will never be in government and that “only God can remove me from power”, faces humiliation over the terms of the deal that he will be forced to sign next month.

He will remain as president in name only and all real power will be held by a 20-member cabinet under Tsvangirai as prime minister. The opposition MDC will have 11 cabinet posts to nine for Mugabe’s Zanu-PF.

All Mugabe’s senior officials in the army, police and intelligence services, who have unleashed a campaign of terror since the MDC won a disputed victory in the elections held in March, will be dismissed.

Observers caution, however, that bringing Mugabe to justice could be protracted since Zimbabwe does not recognise the jurisdiction of the ICC. Any investigation would require a referral from the United Nations security council, which would probably be blocked by China or Russia.

The transitional government will have close ties to a group of western donor nations known as the Fishmongers Group, set up a year ago on Britain’s initiative. It includes the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Sweden, Holland, Norway, Canada and Australia. China declined an invitation to join.

The decisive showdown came last week when Mugabe realised that his power was broken. On Monday Mbeki’s emissary, Sidney Mufamadi, a South African cabinet minister, arrived in Harare to read the riot act to Zanu-PF officials.

I wonder whether the situation will end as peacefully as those terms suggest. Mugabe's hard line supporters might not be so willing to throw in the towel, and the military may not give up their power so easily either.

However, this is the most hopeful sign coming out of Zimbabwe in a long time.