Monday, March 10, 2008

Hysterics

So, what are you supposed to do with a "report" such as this? MSNBC and Washington Post headlines the following: "CO2 output must cease altogether, studies warn"
Using advanced computer models to factor in deep-sea warming and other aspects of the carbon cycle that naturally creates and removes carbon dioxide (CO2), the scientists, from countries including the United States, Canada and Germany, are delivering a simple message: The world must bring carbon emissions down to near zero to keep temperatures from rising further.

"The question is, what if we don't want the Earth to warm anymore?" asked Carnegie Institution senior scientist Ken Caldeira, co-author of a paper published last week in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. "The answer implies a much more radical change to our energy system than people are thinking about."

Emissions continue to rise
Although many nations have been pledging steps to curb emissions for nearly a decade, the world's output of carbon from human activities totals about 10 billion tons a year and has been steadily rising.

For now, at least, a goal of zero emissions appears well beyond the reach of politicians here and abroad. U.S. leaders are just beginning to grapple with setting any mandatory limit on greenhouse gases. The Senate is poised to vote in June on legislation that would reduce U.S. emissions by 70 percent by 2050; the two Democratic senators running for president, Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) and Barack Obama (Ill.), back an 80 percent cut. The Republican presidential nominee, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), supports a 60 percent reduction by mid-century.
Well, given that practically every creature on the planet exhales CO2 as part of their natural respiratory processes, ceasing CO2 output is simply impossible, and natural population increases make it impossible to curtail CO2 emissions no matter what is done, short of killing all farm creatures, going back to subsistence living, and watching mass die-offs of large parts of the global human population (which for some of these neo-Luddites, is exactly what they hope for).

However, if these global warming hysterics want to do their share, they can hold their breath and do us all a favor.

Research is showing that CO2 is a lagging indicator of climate changes, not a predictive indicator. Other factors, like solar output, have a far greater impact on global climate than CO2 emissions.

Blue Crab Boulevard
also suggests that these folks hold their breath. Tigerhawk notes that reducing CO2 emissions to zero would also constitute a global disaster, but that part doesn't get nearly the kind of scrutiny.

What also doesn't get nearly the scrutiny is the fact that these computer models, for all of their purported sophistication, are still quite limited in the kind of data that is included and it barely scratches the surface of the factors that go into global climate changes.

No comments: