Sunday, September 23, 2007

Farfetched or Far Reaching Consequences?

There is a news report from the Times of London that suggests that the September 6 incident in Syria was far more complex and involved an Israeli force on the ground that secured nuclear materials in a raid.
Israeli commandos seized nuclear material of North Korean origin during a daring raid on a secret military site in Syria before Israel bombed it this month, according to informed sources in Washington and Jerusalem. The attack was launched with American approval on September 6 after Washington was shown evidence the material was nuclear related, the well-placed sources say.
This is the only outlet to run with the story, and the author had previously claimed that Israel was working on a bioweapon that would hit only Arabs.

I'm skeptical that this whole incident would provoke absolutely no reaction among any of the players - is operational security that tight that no one would talk? What kind of nuclear material was taken, and if a small force was involved, how much material was there in the first place? How much material would constitute such a threat that this kind of mission need be launched? A few kilos?

The report is quite specific that the nuclear materials came from North Korea. It suggests that the Israelis had access to intel that was not only quite specific, but highly accurate. Why would Israel want to let on that it has those kinds of capabilities, or that it has access to that kind of capabilities? It exposes those sources to being exposed and burned. One possible reason that the Israelis and/or the Americans might allow some details to be floated is to remind Iran that it has the capabilities to deal with the Iranian nuclear program.

Still, there is reason to suspect something serious and important happened in that raid. Syria isn't talking. Do they want to avoid the issue, even if it means that Israel got to deal a serious blow to Syrian nuclear intentions? That would run counter to how Iraq acted after Israel's Osirak raid - although a key distinction was that the nuclear program was recognized by the international community, even if they didn't know what to do about it. No one is quite sure what Syria is up to.

All I can say is that with the Syrians remaining clammed up on the matter, I suspect something important did happen, but the extent to which is a mystery. Unless additional sources come forward to corroborate the report of Israeli ground forces recovering nuclear materials, I don't know how much faith I can place in this particular report. There may be something to the report.

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