Speculating on the Vick Plea Deal

No one quite knows for sure what will be included in Michael Vick's plea deal, but some outlets are reporting that Vick will not admit to killing any dogs and will not admit to placing illegal bets.

The source told ESPN that Vick's defense team met with federal attorneys Thursday afternoon to determine the "summary of facts" to which Vick will plead, and that his attorneys believed they had a deal. The source said Vick maintains he never killed dogs and never gambled on a dog fight.

He will admit he was present when dogs were killed, but that he did not personally kill any of the dogs.

The allegations of killing dogs and gambling were part of the picture painted by Vick's three co-defendants, all of whom have pleaded guilty.

Vick, 27, is scheduled to enter his plea agreement Monday and could face up to five years in prison.

Vick's co-defendants said Vick provided virtually all the gambling and operating funds for the Bad Newz Kennels enterprise. Two of them also said Vick participated in executing at least eight dogs seen as underperforming by various means, including drowning and hanging.

A government official, speaking on condition of anonymity because the terms are not final, told The Associated Press Wednesday that prosecutors will recommend a sentence of one year to 18 months. However, U.S. District Judge Henry Hudson is not bound by that recommendation or by federal sentencing guidelines that will call for less than the five-year maximum.

This is where things get interesting. Strange things can happen in a celebrity trial when you've got a good defense team present. Vick has a good lawyer, and for their part, they know that Vick could get hammered. That's why we're seeing talks over a plea deal. Avoiding trial introduces certainty into the outcome.

If this pans out as reported, it's the best scenario for Vick, since he would allocute to various related charges without directly claiming that he personally killed dogs or gambled on the dogs. A potential problem, and it's a significant one at that, is that his codefendants said that Vick personally killed dogs and gambled.

Those need to be reconciled and may play into how the negotiations work out over what Vick will actually plea to on Monday.

UPDATE:
I forgot to mention that by avoiding the issue of personally killing dogs or gambling on the dog fights, Vick opens the door to resume his NFL career at some point and salvage deals with sponsors. He's taking a huge hit here, regardless of how this pans out, but these reports suggest that Vick may find an NFL career at the end of all this.

UPDATE:
All the specualtion about what may or may not be in the plea deal turns out to be idle after all. Vick will admit to killing dogs that didn't perform well.

NFL star Michael Vick has admitted that he and two of co-conspirators killed dogs that did not fight well in papers filed Friday with a federal court in Virginia.

NFL star Michael Vick is set to appear in court Monday. A judge will have the final say on a plea deal.

Vick said he would plead guilty to one count of "Conspiracy to Travel in Interstate Commerce in Aid of Unlawful Activities and to Sponsor a Dog in an Animal Fighting Venture" in a plea agreement filed at U.S. District Court in Richmond, Virginia.

The charge is punishable by up to five years in prison, a $250,000 fine, "full restitution, a special assessment and 3 years of supervised release," the plea deal said.

Federal prosecutors agreed to ask for the low end of the sentencing guidelines.

"The defendant will plead guilty because the defendant is in fact guilty of the charged offense," the plea agreement said. Watch how Vick was involved »

In an additional summary of facts, signed by Vick and filed with the agreement, Vick admitted buying pit bulls and the property used for training and fighting the dogs but did not bet on the fights or receive any of the money won.

"Most of the 'Bad Newz Kennels' operations and gambling monies were provided by Vick," the official summary of facts said. Gambling wins were generally split between co-conspirators Tony Taylor, Quanis Phillips and sometimes Purnell Peace, it continued.

"Vick did not gamble by placing side bets on any of the fights. Vick did not receive any of the proceeds from the purses that were won by 'Bad Newz Kennels.' "

The prosecutors have handled this quite well and have created conditions for cracking down on similar dog fighting operations around the country because of the high profile nature of this prosecution.