Time Compression

I'm going to declare my intention to consider running in the 2020 Presidential campaign today. It's only the right thing to do considering how things are going with the 2008 election season.

We've already had two debates between the contenders within the various parties. Last night was the first for the GOP. The Democrats held theirs last week. If I don't get my name in the ring today, I might lose out on the ability to raise money and get the campaign rolling in time. I don't know who else might be considering a run, but the compressed schedule of primaries we're seeing today will force candidates to throw their hat in the ring sooner and sooner, and I'm not sure that it's a good idea for anyone.

States are lining up to push their primaries earlier than the other states to set the pace and remain relevant in determining the candidates from each of the parties. At the rate that is happening for 2008, we might see the first actual primaries trickling into 2007. Super Tuesday (usually the first or second Tuesday in March) used to be a big deal, but now we've got a stampede of states going early.

Florida wants to jump to the head of the line, despite threats from both political parties. If it does, expect South Carolina, New Hampshire, and Iowa to move even earlier to retain their primacy on the electoral campaign trail.

But officials in other states said Florida’s move would only create more chaos around the nominating process, which has already been upended by other states’ decisions to hold earlier primaries. New Hampshire may move up its primary as a result — possibly even to this year — and in South Carolina, Republican officials said they, too, would advance the date of their primary.

“South Carolina will name a date that keeps us first in the South,” said the party chairman, Katon Dawson. “It could be as early as Halloween and our version of trick-or-treat, if we have to.”

Choosing primary dates has always been contentious, with states that held primaries late in the season feeling marginalized. But frustration soared this year, and dozens of states began to jostle for position, with more than 20 so far settling on Feb. 5 or considering it.

The move to earlier primaries means that candidates have to get their money together sooner. That means ever more rubber chicken dinners and cross-country trips, which means we'll have even more stories about how Clinton used a couple of private jets in a span of 48 hours and $400 haircuts from Edwards using campaign money. How many trees are the candidates going to plant to offset their trips across the country to rake in the campaign contributions? I don't think it will be enough given the breakneck pace that they need to raise more than $100 million needed to be considered a viable candidate these days.

I understand why some states, like New York and New Jersey want to jump to the head of the pack. These large population states are considered irrelevant by the time their primaries rolled around - the candidates were often coronated well before voters got to make their choices. In 2004, Kerry was already the decided-upon candidate for the Democrats by the time New Jersey voters got to cast their votes, regardless if they wanted Kerry or not. If you wanted someone else, tough luck. To fix that problem, the states are creating a new one - one where candidates have to move into campaigning earlier and earlier. That campaigning means that candidates need to raise funds quicker, and forcing them to commit to running earlier.

At the rate this is going, you may have to start running for the next election before the current one is decided. It means that the political cycle never has any downtime and politicians have to spend all their time campaigning and not doing nearly enough time actually governing (though is that really a bad thing as the less time the government is in session, the less damage it can do to the Constitution).

UPDATE:
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