Selling the Story

I'm not really sure what to make of the decision by the British government to allow the 15 sailors and Royal Marines to sell their stories to the media. For the 15, it means a windfall of epic proportions. However, what kind of precedent does it set, and does this also mean that the underlying issues of training, rules of engagement, and how and why the incident occurred will be ignored by the media and whitewashed by the British government? There are those like EU Referendum who think that this is a real bad idea. Dan Riehl thinks that Britain just went chapter 11 in the moral bankruptcy file.

I don't like the idea that the 15 were able to sell their stories, but it isn't all bad. Of course, this news also bodes poorly for the Iranians who will now face a slew of books and potential movies that show Iran in a poor light. The hardliners didn't get the trial and public humiliation of the British as they had hoped, but the Iranian goals were advanced. Their poor treatment, despite the goody bags at their release, will be integral to the book/movie deals. That includes the coercive techniques employed including solitary confinement and any threats made of putting them on trial for espionage.

Sometimes the perceptions matter more than the reality, because the perceptions shape the reality.

Mickey Kaus wonders why exactly this was a major loss to the British government, while the Iranians gained. He thinks that the Iranians blinked, especially as US aircraft carriers were steaming through the Gulf conducting drills. I think the Iranians got the better of the deal, especially because they got the British sailors and Marines to admit in propaganda videos that they were inside Iranian waters, which undermines Iraqi claims to the very waterway that provides their sole outlet to the Persian Gulf. That's quite significant, even if it was quite contrived and obtained through coercion and threats.

Kaus discounts the events that led up to the release, and looks solely at the release. The entire situation was designed with two purposes in mind. One was for domestic consumption. The Iranian government was playing this to shore up support domestically and to further bolster their contention that the British were undermining Iranian sovereignty. The Iranians were also playing this internationally, so as to undermine support for the British mission in Iraq, which also plays into Iranian hands strategically. You can quibble over how successful the Iranians were internationally, but the media was playing the videos of the sailors' admissions incessantly with breathless headlines that the British admitted to being inside Iranian waters.

The cumulative effect cannot be underestimated.

The Iranians are claiming that they will engage in further kidnappings. Does this sound like they think that they lost in all this? The Iranians believe that they furthered their foreign policy goals through the taking of the British 15 and will engage in further incidents as it suits their needs. The Iranians are little more than a thugocracy engaging in piracy.