Sunday, April 01, 2007

The Iran-Britain Crisis Continues

The crisis continues, though there are reports that a deal may be in the works. It figures that the British would issue a non-apology apology. Excuse me while I wonder about that a bit. The British did nothing wrong by patrolling inside Iraqi waters, while the Iranians are the ones who illegally entered Iraqi waters to capture the British service members.

The only folks who should be issuing an apology are the Iranians - and then some. They're the ones who have been violating international law, illegally holding the Britons, and yet they're the ones who are pushing the British to apologize. No good can come from a British apology.

Lots of folks agree with that assessment. Mark Steyn for one. Blue Crab Boulevard and Michael van der Galien have more, including President Bush's call for Iran to release the 15 unconditionally.

Iran, of course, calls the American and British efforts

Hot Air has a good roundup. The British got themselves into this mess because of downsizing and demilitarization. It's the same problem the US has been facing for the past couple of years. The so-called peace dividend following the end of the Cold War has proven to be a costly one. Ed Morrissey has more on the demilitarization aspects.

The sad fact is that the British are already well down the path to groveling for the return of their service members. The Iranians will be sure to exploit this as well. The Iranians are still threatening to put the 15 on trial, which continues to be a violation of international law. Of course, anyone watching this situation developing would know that international law only applies to certain countries while others get to skate.
On Thursday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip that the case had entered a legal investigation phase, state television reported.

Ansari also reiterated Iran's stance that the British government could resolve the crisis by admitting the sailors entered Iranian waters.

"If the U.K. government admits its mistake and apologizes to Iran for its naval personnel's trespassing of Iranian territorial waters, the issue can be easily settled," he said.

The diplomat claimed the British government had escalated the crisis by taking the matter to the U.N. Security Council rather than resolving it on a bilateral basis.
Let's examine this issue a bit deeper. The British were operating in Iraqi waters in the Shaat al Arab waterway. The Iran-Iraq border in this area has been disputed before, and was one of the reasons for the 1980-1988 bloodletting known as the Iran-Iraq war that killed more than a million people.

The Iran Iraq border in the region is set, and if the British concede that their position was in Iranian waters when it wasn't, that puts the Iraqis at a disadvantage going forward as the waterway is their only terminus on the Persian Gulf. That too may be part of the Iranian endgame.

Neo-neocon wonders who the real audience is for the eventual show trial should it come to that.

UPDATE:
Go figure that protests would take place outside the British embassy in Tehran. Staged? Count on it. Oh, and it wasn't exactly peaceful either:
About 200 students threw rocks and firecrackers at the British Embassy on Sunday, calling for the expulsion of the country's ambassador because of the standoff over Iran's capture of 15 British sailors and marines.

Several dozen policeman prevented the protesters from entering the embassy compound, although a few briefly scaled a fence outside the compound's walls before being pushed back, according to an Associated Press reporter at the scene.
The Iranians are playing a very dangerous game and the British do not appear in a position to take a hard line, though they realize that some actions might go beyond what the Iranians can safely assume will result in no tangible repercussions for the regime.

UPDATE:
Iran has released yet more agitprop. This stuff may be transparent propaganda, but it's effective to the weak-kneed.

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