Polling On The November Election Outcome, Part II

I previously wrote about what I thought was going on with the polling and general sentiment around the country. Namely, I believed that Foleygate had little to no effect on the outcome, as the GOP was in substantially the same position as it was in at the beginning of September - before Foleygate broke and before President Bush began his more emphatic defense of the war on terror and defending the conflict in Iraq as the right thing to do.

Election Projection, which all but nailed the 2004 elections and did far better than the professional prognosticators, seems to confirm my take on the House, which would remain in GOP control. The Senate is a dead heat, with the GOP retaining power on the tiebreaker (aka Dick Cheney). That particular scenario also gives someone like Joe Lieberman quite a bit of power since his fellow Democrats all but screwed him in the aftermath of the primary. They'll now try to butter him up to make sure he sticks with the caucus. Given his voting record, that shouldn't be that difficult, but he could extract quite a toll on Democrat leadership. The currently weekly wrapup is here.

That isn't going to stop those from trying to argue that polls show the GOP losing the House. The poll itself is here.