Tuesday, June 06, 2006

What's Behind Interest Rate Increases?

Is it really about inflation control and managing expectations in the post-Greenspan fed era, and not about preparing the economy for another potential terrorist attack? The Federal Reserve's monetary and fiscal policy has to look at all kinds of factors when determining interest rates that it sets on a regular basis. Inflation is the item that the fed often latches onto when pegging an increase in the rate. And yet inflation has been pretty tame throughout the period of increases.

That seems to suggest that something else is at work here. Could it be that the Fed knows that a significant terrorist attack against the US is inevitable and that the government needs breathing room in order to prime the economy should an attack cause significant economic harm? The fed is probably thinking that if there's another attack, they need to head off a recession and cutting the rates sharply after an attack might do it (as seen by the way the economy bounced back after 9/11). Inflation has been under control for the past couple of years - and one can make the argument that the fed has gone too far in raising rates if it was solely going on an inflation-fighting rationale.

After all, CBS News reports that officals are worried that such an attack could come by the end of the year. I know, it's CBS News reporting this, and the officials are unnamed, but security experts know that such an attack is inevitable - the US needs to be perfect 100% of the time, and the terrorists only need to get lucky once to make their mark.

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