Got Another One?

Last week, we heard from three horsemen of the jihadi apocalypse (Osama, Zarqawi, and Zawahiri). This week, we're learning that the US may now be detaining one of Osama's top lieutenants after being captured in a Pakistani sting operation:

A top al Qaeda leader whose links stretch from Afghan terror training camps to extremist networks operating throughout Europe has been detained in neighboring Pakistan and possibly handed over to American authorities, according to a U.S. law enforcement official.

Mustafa Setmarian Nasar, a Syrian who also holds Spanish citizenship, was captured in a November 2005 sting in the southwestern Pakistani city of Quetta that left one person dead, said the American official, who declined to be identified further because the matter is sensitive.

The official, who spoke to The Associated Press late last week, said Nasar, who is also known as Abu Musab al-Suri, may now be in U.S. custody but did not specify where. He declined to comment further.

A couple of points here. If this story pans out, this is great news and shows that we're making serious inroads into al Qaeda's inner circle of leaders.

A couple of question ought to be considered when examining a story such as this:

1) Was the story based on the leak of classified information.
2) Does officially recognizing that the US now is in possession of this terrorist undermine his intel value?

Leaks are big business in journalism - after all that's how many newsies make their mark and get their stories. However, I believe that the substantive information of this story was declassified.

One has to believe that al-Suri's associates know that he was likely captured or killed by now, and have made alternative plans, and therefore releasing this information now doesn't undermine US intel gathering efforts or the battle plan against al Qaeda. The most likely scenario is that the information wa probably declassified because the recognition of his capture doesn't affect operational security. It also serves to undermine the recent videos produced by al Qaeda.

Therefore, on balance, one has to conclude that his value on new terror operations is low, and that recognizing that we're in possession of this terrorist after sitting on the news for several months has enabled US intel to glean as much information as possible. The US likely allowed this information to be released to counter the recent videos, undermining their effect by showing that we're hitting at the al Qaeda leadership directly.