Iran's War Drums

Iran continues its war games, and analysts are scurrying to determine whether the latest pronouncements from Tehran are bluster or whether Iran has genuinely upgraded and implemented modern systems into their military.

Although Iran can draw on huge manpower, its naval and air-force technology is largely dismissed as outmoded.

"A powerful torpedo made by experts of the Revolutionary Guards will be test fired today in the Persian Gulf. Tomorrow, we will see other missile test firings by the Revolutionary Guards in the 'Great Prophet' war game," Rear Admiral Dehqani told state television, which only gave his family name.

Iran said in February last year that it had started a mass production line of torpedoes.

The Islamic Republic has three elderly Kilo class diesel-electric Russian submarines. These are capable of firing homing torpedoes but military analysts say these vessels are unsuited to modern naval combat.

Iran has also started building midget submarines, which it says are capable of firing torpedoes.

"We are going to have very important news that will make our nation proud in the next few days," Dehqani added, without explaining. The week of wargames started on Friday.

Western nations have been watching developments in Iran's ballistic missile capabilities with concern amid a standoff over the Iranian nuclear program, which the West says is aimed at building atomic bombs.

The latest development over the weekend was the claim that Iran had successfully tested a Shkval torpedo derivative. The torpedo, which can travel 200+ mph, is more than 3 times faster than conventional torpedoes. At 26 feet long, however, the Iranians have a limited number of vessels that can maneuver and fire the weapon. They have the three Kilo class submarines, and several surface ships, but that's it. The mini subs that they have developed are most likely unable to accomodate the Shkval, though if they're intent on using it as a suicide squad, that increases the number of ships by three.

Surface ships are sitting targets for US aircraft, who could fire off their anti-ship missiles from 100 miles away. The Shkval has a range of 7 miles. Doing the math, the only way that these torpedoes are going to be used is if the Iranians get lucky or go after unarmed tankers in the Straits of Hormuz.

And if they're going after tankers, they don't need the Shkvals. Ordinary torpedoes could do the job just as well.

The wildcard is whether they've deployed these weapons with crude nukes (which the Iranians are hellbent on acquiring) - as the original version was designed to fire in a straight line with a nuclear warhead. Firing such a weapon in the general direction of a carrier battle group might result in serious casualties in the narrow confines of the Persian Gulf where maneuvering space is more limited.

This suggests that the Iranians are thinking in strategic terms and hoping that their nuclear weapons program catches up with their delivery systems, which they've been testing in increasing frequency.

UPDATE:
Ed Morrissey sees the Iranians as blustering:

The most likely explanation falls closer to bluff than reality. The continued boasting of superweapon technology combined with the diplomatic isolation Iran has experienced makes this sound like the mullahcracy is willing to pull out all stops in order to intimidate the West into backing off of Teheran. The mullahs have overplayed the threats at this point.

The Sub Report has more. Bubblehead pores through the Iranian press release (and the CNN copy) and thinks this is yet another exaggerated threat:

Us submariners know that such claims are either spurious (radar evading -- not hard for a submarine firing an underwater weapon) or ridiculous (a supercavitating torpedo that can "evade sonar detection"?). Vigilis has more background on the Russian Shkval supercavitiating torpedo on which this alleged weapon is supposed to be based, but even if they did make something like this, the things are basically unguidable, and are really only useful for firing down the bearing of an incoming torpedo in hopes of getting your opponent to move, or, if it's armed with a nuclear warhead, as a "revenge" weapon.

And he further notes that the press video of the torpedo launch shows that it was surface launched, which means that it can either be deployed from a ship (a nice big target for US aircraft defending the US fleet) or from land (again, a nice stationary target for US aircraft to plink).

UPDATE:
And the Iranians tested another new torpedo today. No word on what kind, but I'd check the sources above (Bubbleheads and The Sub Report) for more information.

UPDATE:
Defense Tech breaks down the Shkval threat and comments on Iranian capabilities. [also fixed a typo above.] There's additional commentary on the technology involved here. New York Times reported the test, but this is curious:

The state television video broadcast Sunday showed crew members on a submarine and described them as preparing to launch the missile. Another film clip showed what was described as the missile being fired from the deck of a ship and diving into the water.

Hmm, the Iranians trying sleight of hand showing a sub crew supposedly preparing to fire, but the clip of the firing is from a surface ship? Curious. I guess the Iranians aren't too keen on firing the missiles from a submarine?

UPDATE:
Others blogging the story include Gina Cobb, The Rolling Barrage (who counsels caution on bedwetting), All Things Beautiful, The Jawa Report, and Riehl World View.