Monday, January 23, 2006

Tracking Terrorists

Have we drawn a bead on Zarqawi? This article at Security Watchtower looks at the efforts to track down al Qaeda's nihlist leader in Iraq.
Iraqi military officials said recent intelligence suggests that al Qaeda leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is hiding out in the Diyala province near Baghdad. The capture of operatives and associates of the terror leader over the last two years have enabled coalition and Iraqi forces to learn more about the Jordanian. In regards to the reports, I would question why this information was released if it's credible. It could be possible they want to try to shake him from his current hideout, and sending him on the run would improve the chance to capture or kill him. It's difficult to say whether the reports should be given any credibility.

There is one particularly interesting angle to the story, and that's the common border shared by Diyala province in Iraq and Kermanshah province in Iran. If indeed Zarqawi is operating out of Diyala province, as reported by several Iraqi intelligent sources, then it's worth exploring the potential that Zarqawi could be using Iran as a rear line base in feeding the insurgency.
The reports of Zarqawi in Diyala may be a disinformation campaign to flush Zarqawi from his hiding places, or it could be that the intel is solid and we're zeroing in on his location. If true, it's certainly interesting that the center of the search pattern has Zarqawi tracking towards the Iranian border. One would think that Zarqawi realizes that his best chance for continued success (at living, that is) is to gain the support and backing of Iran which is busy trying to destablize the region to its own advantage. Meanwhile, the guys running the Predator UAVs that can launch missiles at suspected terrorist hideouts believe that the benefits outweigh the costs of launching those covert strikes.

Taken together, the noose is hopefully tightening around Zarqawi and his cohorts. If we can track him down, his options are significantly reduced.

Hat Tip: Kenneth at LGF.

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