Sunday, January 15, 2006

New Details Emerge on Failed Zawahiri Strike

Pakistani intel officials have said that the US airstrikes missed Zawahiri, and that's a damn rotten shame. The locals have pulled out artillery shells that may or may not have been used in the strike, and here's the thing. If 105mm artillery shells were used in the air strike, it would confirm that an AC-130 gunship was conducting the strike, quite possibly with Predator drones providing additional reconaissance. The problem is that if the shells used were larger diameter shells, it would mean that the photo op used a staged prop - and not an item related to the attack (although it might indicate that the US forces have a new toy in their arsenal).

Of course, Pakistan condemns the airstrikes, but it wouldn't be necessary if Pakistan wasn't harboring al Qaeda terrorists, ISS maintains sympathies for al Qaeda, and that the border regions are unpatrolled by Pakistani forces to the point that no one has a real good idea what's going on there.

UPDATE:
Confederate Yankee has additional thoughts and information on the strike against al Qaeda's Number #2 - Zawahiri. It appears that we got good intel on a gathering at the target site, but Zawahiri simply didn't show. We got other Taliban/al Qaeda operatives, just not the big fish.
Terrorists were targeted at these locations by what appears to certainly be human intelligence working in conjunction with aerial surveillance and targeting. Only a human source (or communications monitoring—perhaps by NSA?) would be able to find out that al-Zawahiri was invited to dinner at this home, and it is reasonable for a circling drone or any operators on the ground to surmise that a small ground of armed men arriving at the specified location at the specified time might very well contain their target. This was not a case of an intelligence failure, but a case of one fewer terrorists showing up for dinner.

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