Have I Turned Into A Weather Blogger?

Not entirely. I'm tracking these storms because of their potential effects on the US Gulf Coast, which has already borne the brunt of Katrina. Louisiana's problems seem to be growing as overnight simulations are indicating that Hurricane Rita, a category 3 storm at present, may take a more northerly route, which puts it on target to sideswipe Western Louisiana and may affect New Orleans with heavy rains.

The Storm Track has more.

UPDATE:
Hurricane Rita is now a Category 4 storm, with sustained top winds of 135 mph.

Expect the usual chorus to complain that this is all the fault of global warming. Here are the facts. You tell me if this is the fault of global warming or simply a continuation of a longstanding cyle of hurricane activity. The modern media makes every storm appear to be the worst we've ever seen, but that's also a function of the ability to transmit those images nearly instantaneously without the slightest bit of context. Blogging every storm and the proliferation of sites that discuss these storms also adds the personal recollections and details that were lacking in earlier decades. The global warming true believers don't want you to see this kind of information because it undercuts their belief that global warming is to blame for the increase in hurricane activity.

The fact is that hurricanes appear in cycles, and their strength varies in cycles. We appear to be in the middle of a cycle when there is greater activity and intensity. That is independent of any global warming.

UPDATE:
The National Hurricane Center has upgraded the storm to category 4, and expects it to potentially become a category 5 storm within the next 24 hours or so.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

This means that oil production in the Gulf of Mexico will be limited once again as the oil rigs are secured and personnel are flown inland to safety. However, this storm appears to be more compact than Katrina in terms of the distance from the core that is experiencing hurricane strength winds, though the wind field is expected to expand over the next 24 hours.

UPDATE:
Junkyardblog suggests that Rita may have gone to Category 5, based on simulations and preliminary data. Top winds at altitude are in excess of 175 mph and surface winds appear to exceed the 155 mph threshold for a category 5 storm. The track still has it hitting the Texas coast, but if I were anywhere within 5 miles of the coast or any lowlying area, I'd be trying to find high ground right about now. There is little you can do against a storm of this kind except get out of its way.

The Gulf of Mexico appears to be plenty warm to support further strengthening of the storm. The forward motion of Rita at the moment appears to be faster than Katrina, which may be a saving grace for the coastline, but the damage will still be severe.

UPDATE:
Generation Why asks the important questions in a compare and contrast. Can you spot the difference? I knew you could.

UPDATE:
Rita has experienced a massive intensification over the past 24 hours. It is now a massive Category 5 storm, with a central pressure of 898mb (26.52 inches), which makes it the third most intense storm in the recorded history of the Atlantic Basin. Typhoon Tip in the Pacific is the overall recordholder with a central pressure of 870 mb.

THE PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY AND THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 898 MB...26.52 INCHES. THIS MAKES RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LARGE WAVES ON TOP AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING.

In other words, even if this storm doesn't target Louisiana for landfall, it could still experience serious flooding due to increased wave action.

Technorati: flood aid; hurricane katrina; hurricane rita; katrina aid; new orleans, rita, galveston