The Plame Odds

Some of you might be interested in who I think the real leaker is behind the whole Plame Affair, which has sent one journalist to prison for contempt of court - Judith Miller, but yet no one has actually been tabbed as the leaker.

So, without further ado, the odds:

No leak - it was common knowledge spoken of in hushed tones. No odds.

Joe Wilson. even odds.. Husband to Valerie Plame - the guy is a blabbermouth and a media whore who has political reasons to reveal his wife's identity even though most of Washington knew she worked for the CIA. His stories about the trip to Niger have become lost in the mix - and his lies about his findings and who sent him are worthy of a novel (oh yes, there's a book by Wilson as well).

Valerie Plame. 4-1. She's the individual whose name causes this whole mess. She could have revealed herself to the media simply because she wanted to support her husband's anti-Bush positions. Works for the CIA. Last known to be stationed overseas in 1997.

Judith Miller. 10-1 - she's the one in jail for contempt of court for failing to cooperate with the special prosecutor investigating the situation. Her curious position, that a blanket waiver of confidentiality that was requested of individual that is not freely given is not a waiver is a curious one. There has been no one involved who has claimed that their waiver was somehow coerced. This is probably because she knows who really was behind the leak and wants to protect them. The NYT has invested a lot of time and effort into discrediting the Bush Administration over this issue and its their reporter in jail because of it. That can't go over well at HQ. And they have to know what Miller is protecting. It can't be good for the Times if they're protecting it by letting their reporter sit in jail.

Matt Cooper. 15-1. He's a Newsweek reporter who finally decided to cooperate with the prosecutors. It's his conversations with Karl Rove that suggest that Rove was being asked about the Wilson-Plame relationship from other reporters, not the other way around. Rove had basically said that he questioned Wilson's accounts and that there was some serious questions to be asked about Wilson's story, which was published as an op-ed in the New York Times.

Robert Novak. 15-1. He originally 'revealed' Plame's identity in a story back in 2003 but he had to learn of the identity from someone, so he's probably not the original 'leaker'

Karl Rove. 25-1. Darth Rove - confidant to President Bush, his Chief of Staff and focus of Democratic ire because he's bobby flayed the Democrats for years. All the evidence points to him being told of Plame's identify from the reporters calling him, not the other way around. Yet, he may have confirmed this to be true, which is a roundabout way of saying that he knew of her identity and position. Fear leads to anger, anger leads to hate. Hate leads to Democrats suffering from Bush Derangement Syndrome.

Now, there might be others out there who are involved, but these are the key figures.