Wednesday, April 13, 2005

In Search Of The Big One

And I'm not talking about the end of life on the planet, or finding God. I am talking about al Qaeda's incessant need to launch a spectacular attack somewhere in the world so that it can show that it is still somehow relevant and instrumental in determining an outcome (any outcome) in the world.

This is why it continues trying to launch attacks on places like Abu Ghraib or using suicide bombers elsewhere in Iraq to kill large numbers of people.

Yet, it would be folly to think that al Qaeda has given up hope of attacking mainland United States targets. It is still possible that there are unknown cells targeting locations in the United States.

Such an attack could be spectacular - Oklahoma City bombing scale car bombings, or an event at a high profile televised scene as happened during the 1996 Olympic Park bombing. An al Qaeda attack on the homeland would renew calls against the current Administration and its national security efforts, possibly institute new rules far more stringent than the Patriot Act, and affect the markets and economic well being of millions of Americans.

Such an attack would reinvigorate al Qaeda, permitting it to expand its operational postures where it already has support/sympathy - especially where it can add personnel. Thus, defending against another major attack has to remain a priority for the foreseeable future.

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