Long Overdue, But Good

The US is apparently conducting overflights of Iran using drone aircraft.

The Bush administration has been flying surveillance drones over Iran for nearly a year to seek evidence of nuclear weapons programs and detect weaknesses in air defenses, according to three U.S. officials with detailed knowledge of the secret effort.

The small, pilotless planes, penetrating Iranian airspace from U.S. military facilities in Iraq, use radar, video, still photography and air filters designed to pick up traces of nuclear activity to gather information that is not accessible by satellites, the officials said. The aerial espionage is standard in military preparations for an eventual air attack and is also employed as a tool for intimidation.

Considering that the US and other nations aren't sure where the Iranians are conducting all of their nuclear weapons testing and production facilities, reconaissance is a necessary precondition to taking any action. However, there are limits as to what those overflights can accomplish, especially if the facilities are buried underground.

It has been suspected that the Iranians have learned from the Iraqi experience at Osirak in 1981 when the Israelis bombed the reactor before it went online. If the reactors are buried underground, it becomes incredibly more difficult to destroy the facility from the air with conventional weapons, not to mention actually locating the facility in the first place. That takes human intelligence - assets on the ground in Iran trying to locate the facilities, who's involved, and the supply chain.

As we know with the Iraq situation, human intel was lacking to confirm WMD stocks, which were known to exist based on prior capabilities and intentions. Here, the Iranians are looking to acquire the same technologies, but have had years of unfettered access to Pakistani and North Korean technologies. Obtaining human intel in closed societies - totalitarian regimes - is essential, but extremely difficult. Thus, policy makers are left with making decisions based on less than optimal information. They must, instead, rely on best guesses, estimates, and suppositions.

However, the key to everything remains the same - what is the best and most prudent course of action when nations who have sworn to use WMD, including nuclear weapons upon their acquisition, actually are within months of actually attaining their goals.